Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 9 of 12
Kelly said 9.0% on Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (FC Midtjylland – Lyngby) at 1.83, the quarter staked €2.82; result: lost, −€2.82.
Sun 25 Oct 17:00 · Superliga · ticket #1238
-2.82 €lost
Kelly said 1.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Palmeiras – RB Bragantino) at 1.62, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1162
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.0% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Sporting Kansas City – Austin) at 1.42, the quarter staked €1.09; result: won, +€0.46.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1159
+0.46 €won
Kelly said 1.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Real Salt Lake – St. Louis City) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1158
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.2% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (San Diego – Seattle Sounders) at 1.90, the quarter staked €1.31; result: won, +€1.18.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1145
+1.18 €won
Kelly said 8.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys) at 1.39, the quarter staked €1.67; result: won, +€0.65.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1143
+0.65 €won
Kelly said 4.7% on Newells Old Boys Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys) at 1.85, the quarter staked €1.89; result: won, +€1.61.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1130
+1.61 €won
Kelly said 5.5% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Sporting Kansas City – Austin) at 1.73, the quarter staked €1.91; result: won, +€1.39.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1129
+1.39 €won
Kelly said 5.2% on Portland Timbers Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Portland Timbers – Charlotte) at 1.85, the quarter staked €2.03; result: won, +€1.73.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1123
+1.73 €won
Kelly said 6.4% on RB Bragantino Under 14.5 Fouls (Palmeiras – RB Bragantino) at 1.70, the quarter staked €2.05; result: won, +€1.43.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1122
+1.43 €won
Kelly said 9.4% on Fluminense Under 1.5 Offsides (Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense) at 1.65, the quarter staked €2.67; result: won, +€1.74.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1096
+1.74 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Palmeiras – RB Bragantino) at 2.12, the quarter staked €2.72; result: lost, −€2.72.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1094
-2.72 €lost
Kelly said 9.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Chapecoense-sc – Fluminense) at 1.73, the quarter staked €2.95; result: won, +€2.15.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1086
+2.15 €won
Kelly said 12.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Colorado Rapids – Vancouver Whitecaps) at 1.57, the quarter staked €3.04; result: lost, −€3.04.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1083
-3.04 €lost
Kelly said 7.0% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Sporting Kansas City – Austin) at 2.12, the quarter staked €3.19; result: lost, −€3.19.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1078
-3.19 €lost
Kelly said 10.8% on Santos Over 1.5 Offsides (Santos – Bahia) at 1.75, the quarter staked €3.26; result: won, +€2.45.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1076
+2.45 €won
Kelly said 8.3% on San Diego Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (San Diego – Seattle Sounders) at 2.12, the quarter staked €3.50; result: won, +€3.92.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1068
+3.92 €won
Kelly said 11.5% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Colorado Rapids – Vancouver Whitecaps) at 1.98, the quarter staked €3.95; result: lost, −€3.95.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1055
-3.95 €lost
Kelly said 15.1% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (San Lorenzo – Newells Old Boys) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.07; result: won, +€3.26.
Sun 25 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1051
+3.26 €won
Kelly said 6.2% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Ponte Preta – Fortaleza EC) at 1.67, the quarter staked €1.95; result: won, +€1.31.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie B · ticket #1127
+1.31 €won
Kelly said 12.4% on Vasco DA Gama Under 2.5 Offsides (Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians) at 1.38, the quarter staked €2.16; result: won, +€0.82.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1117
+0.82 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians) at 1.65, the quarter staked €2.27; result: lost, −€2.27.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1112
-2.27 €lost
Kelly said 15.3% on Corinthians Over 0.5 Offsides (Vasco DA Gama – Corinthians) at 1.33, the quarter staked €2.29; result: won, +€0.76.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1111
+0.76 €won
Kelly said 14.1% on Over 5.5 Yellow Cards (Ponte Preta – Fortaleza EC) at 2.20, the quarter staked €4.41; result: lost, −€4.41.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie B · ticket #1036
-4.41 €lost
Kelly said 22.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (CRB – Londrina) at 2.20, the quarter staked €4.63; result: won, +€5.56.
Sun 25 Oct 02:30 · Serie B · ticket #1017
+5.56 €won
Kelly said 3.0% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Columbus Crew – Toronto FC) at 1.38, the quarter staked €1.07; result: won, +€0.41.
Sun 25 Oct 01:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1161
+0.41 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Columbus Crew – Toronto FC) at 1.73, the quarter staked €2.46; result: won, +€1.80.
Sun 25 Oct 01:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1104
+1.80 €won
Kelly said 10.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Vitoria – Atletico Paranaense) at 2.00, the quarter staked €3.79; result: lost, −€3.79.
Sun 25 Oct 01:30 · Serie A · ticket #1059
-3.79 €lost
Kelly said 0.9% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (São Bernardo – Vila Nova) at 1.67, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Serie B · ticket #1167
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.5% on Toronto FC Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Columbus Crew – Toronto FC) at 1.70, the quarter staked €1.37; result: won, +€0.96.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1150
+0.96 €won
Kelly said 5.4% on Talleres Cordoba Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Talleres Cordoba – Defensa Y Justicia) at 1.65, the quarter staked €1.75; result: lost, −€1.75.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1138
-1.75 €lost
Kelly said 10.8% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Talleres Cordoba – Defensa Y Justicia) at 1.34, the quarter staked €1.79; result: won, +€0.61.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1136
+0.61 €won
Kelly said 13.0% on Defensa Y Justicia Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Talleres Cordoba – Defensa Y Justicia) at 1.39, the quarter staked €2.32; result: won, +€0.90.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1110
+0.90 €won
Kelly said 12.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Mirassol – Sao Paulo) at 2.10, the quarter staked €4.23; result: lost, −€4.23.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Serie A · ticket #1045
-4.23 €lost
Kelly said 14.4% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Vitoria – Atletico Paranaense) at 2.22, the quarter staked €4.45; result: lost, −€4.45.
Sun 25 Oct 01:04 · Serie A · ticket #1035
-4.45 €lost
Kelly said 1.5% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Almeria – Oviedo) at 1.52, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 25 Oct 00:32 · Segunda División · ticket #1166
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Almeria – Oviedo) at 1.91, the quarter staked €1.42; result: lost, −€1.42.
Sun 25 Oct 00:32 · Segunda División · ticket #1144
-1.42 €lost
Kelly said 13.3% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (GIL Vicente – FC Porto) at 1.42, the quarter staked €2.39; result: won, +€1.00.
Sun 25 Oct 00:32 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1107
+1.00 €won
Kelly said 10.0% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (GIL Vicente – FC Porto) at 1.72, the quarter staked €3.01; result: won, +€2.17.
Sun 25 Oct 00:32 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1084
+2.17 €won
Kelly said 2.6% on FCSB Over 0.5 Offsides (FCSB – Rapid) at 1.32, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.32.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Liga I · ticket #1165
+0.32 €won
Kelly said 1.5% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (RAAL La Louvière – Zulte Waregem) at 1.57, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.57.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1164
+0.57 €won
Kelly said 7.6% on Under 4.5 Offsides (Lens – Paris FC) at 1.19, the quarter staked €1.47; result: won, +€0.28.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1157
+0.28 €won
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Leganes – Mallorca) at 1.42, the quarter staked €1.50; result: lost, −€1.50.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Segunda División · ticket #1155
-1.50 €lost
Kelly said 11.1% on Tottenham Over 0.5 Offsides (Chelsea – Tottenham) at 1.24, the quarter staked €1.60; result: won, +€0.38.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Premier League · ticket #1148
+0.38 €won
Kelly said 3.2% on CF Montreal Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (CF Montreal – Nashville SC) at 2.02, the quarter staked €1.36; result: lost, −€1.36.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1141
-1.36 €lost
Kelly said 5.1% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (CF Montreal – Nashville SC) at 1.70, the quarter staked €1.77; result: lost, −€1.77.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1137
-1.77 €lost
Kelly said 3.7% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (RAAL La Louvière – Zulte Waregem) at 2.02, the quarter staked €1.70; result: won, +€1.73.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1134
+1.73 €won
Kelly said 3.8% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (OH Leuven – Lommel United) at 2.05, the quarter staked €1.78; result: lost, −€1.78.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1131
-1.78 €lost
Kelly said 9.7% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Alverca – Arouca) at 1.45, the quarter staked €1.99; result: won, +€0.90.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1125
+0.90 €won
Kelly said 5.7% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (Avai – Botafogo SP) at 1.80, the quarter staked €2.07; result: won, +€1.66.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.