Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 8 of 12
Kelly said 9.7% on Le Mans Over 1.5 Offsides (Auxerre – Le Mans) at 1.95, the quarter staked €3.38; result: won, +€3.21.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1220
+3.21 €won
Kelly said 15.8% on Bayern München Under 2.5 Offsides (SC Freiburg – Bayern München) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.45; result: won, +€2.07.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #1218
+2.07 €won
Kelly said 11.4% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Auxerre – Le Mans) at 1.93, the quarter staked €3.55; result: lost, −€3.55.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1214
-3.55 €lost
Kelly said 11.4% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Marseille – Le Havre) at 2.00, the quarter staked €3.74; result: lost, −€3.74.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1209
-3.74 €lost
Kelly said 12.4% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Angers – Lorient) at 1.94, the quarter staked €3.81; result: won, +€3.58.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1207
+3.58 €won
Kelly said 22.8% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Rennes – Strasbourg) at 1.57, the quarter staked €3.97; result: won, +€2.26.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1203
+2.26 €won
Kelly said 14.6% on Marseille Over 1.5 Offsides (Marseille – Le Havre) at 1.92, the quarter staked €4.01; result: won, +€3.69.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1201
+3.69 €won
Kelly said 17.0% on Leeds Under 1.5 Offsides (Sunderland – Leeds) at 1.82, the quarter staked €4.05; result: won, +€3.32.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Premier League · ticket #1200
+3.32 €won
Kelly said 11.3% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Toulouse – Estac Troyes) at 2.27, the quarter staked €4.13; result: won, +€5.25.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1198
+5.25 €won
Kelly said 16.5% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Marseille – Le Havre) at 2.02, the quarter staked €4.48; result: won, +€4.57.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1187
+4.57 €won
Kelly said 13.2% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Estoril – Moreirense) at 1.26, the quarter staked €2.06; result: won, +€0.54.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1269
+0.54 €won
Kelly said 11.3% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Albacete – Eldense) at 1.37, the quarter staked €2.17; result: lost, −€2.17.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1264
-2.17 €lost
Kelly said 17.4% on Moreirense Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Estoril – Moreirense) at 1.34, the quarter staked €2.63; result: won, +€0.89.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1245
+0.89 €won
Kelly said 9.6% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Celta Vigo – Real Betis) at 1.75, the quarter staked €2.74; result: won, +€2.05.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · La Liga · ticket #1241
+2.05 €won
Kelly said 15.6% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC) at 1.50, the quarter staked €2.91; result: lost, −€2.91.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1235
-2.91 €lost
Kelly said 8.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Celta Vigo – Real Betis) at 1.95, the quarter staked €2.99; result: won, +€2.84.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · La Liga · ticket #1232
+2.84 €won
Kelly said 9.5% on Eldense Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Albacete – Eldense) at 1.91, the quarter staked €3.18; result: lost, −€3.18.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1226
-3.18 €lost
Kelly said 18.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Estoril – Moreirense) at 1.50, the quarter staked €3.41; result: won, +€1.71.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1219
+1.71 €won
Kelly said 12.7% on Cadiz Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Cadiz – AD Ceuta FC) at 2.10, the quarter staked €4.09; result: lost, −€4.09.
Sun 25 Oct 19:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1199
-4.09 €lost
Kelly said 6.4% on Bayer Leverkusen Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (1899 Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen) at 1.40, the quarter staked €1.87; result: lost, −€1.87.
Sun 25 Oct 19:00 · Bundesliga · ticket #1279
-1.87 €lost
Kelly said 5.0% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (AC Horsens – Sonderjyske) at 1.57, the quarter staked €1.91; result: won, +€1.09.
Sun 25 Oct 19:00 · Superliga · ticket #1277
+1.09 €won
Kelly said 3.4% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Club Brugge KV – St. Truiden) at 1.91, the quarter staked €1.69; result: won, +€1.54.
Sun 25 Oct 19:00 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1273
+1.54 €won
Kelly said 10.6% on Over 2.5 Offsides (1899 Hoffenheim – Bayer Leverkusen) at 1.82, the quarter staked €3.28; result: lost, −€3.28.
Sun 25 Oct 19:00 · Bundesliga · ticket #1223
-3.28 €lost
Kelly said 7.6% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (AC Horsens – Sonderjyske) at 2.15, the quarter staked €3.31; result: lost, −€3.31.
Sun 25 Oct 19:00 · Superliga · ticket #1222
-3.31 €lost
Kelly said 6.7% on Oţelul Under 1.5 Offsides (Farul Constanta – Oţelul) at 1.44, the quarter staked €1.93; result: won, +€0.85.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1276
+0.85 €won
Kelly said 4.0% on Under 2.5 Offsides (Farul Constanta – Oţelul) at 1.90, the quarter staked €2.11; result: won, +€1.90.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1267
+1.90 €won
Kelly said 5.7% on Atalanta Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Atalanta – Frosinone) at 1.82, the quarter staked €2.33; result: won, +€1.91.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1257
+1.91 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Liverpool – Brighton) at 1.65, the quarter staked €2.55; result: won, +€1.66.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1248
+1.66 €won
Kelly said 9.9% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Crystal Palace – Newcastle) at 1.74, the quarter staked €2.79; result: won, +€2.06.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1239
+2.06 €won
Kelly said 13.9% on Venezia Under 2.5 Offsides (Genoa – Venezia) at 1.55, the quarter staked €2.85; result: won, +€1.57.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1237
+1.57 €won
Kelly said 14.1% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (Genoa – Venezia) at 1.57, the quarter staked €2.96; result: won, +€1.69.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1233
+1.69 €won
Kelly said 10.8% on Manchester United Under 1.5 Offsides (Manchester United – Bournemouth) at 1.75, the quarter staked €3.02; result: won, +€2.27.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1231
+2.27 €won
Kelly said 11.9% on Under 4.5 Offsides (Atalanta – Frosinone) at 1.70, the quarter staked €3.12; result: won, +€2.18.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1228
+2.18 €won
Kelly said 15.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Hull City – Brentford) at 1.57, the quarter staked €3.21; result: won, +€1.83.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1225
+1.83 €won
Kelly said 18.1% on Under 3.5 Offsides (Hull City – Brentford) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.66; result: lost, −€3.66.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1211
-3.66 €lost
Kelly said 14.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Liverpool – Brighton) at 1.80, the quarter staked €3.70; result: won, +€2.96.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1210
+2.96 €won
Kelly said 15.2% on Under 4.5 Offsides (Genoa – Venezia) at 1.78, the quarter staked €3.85; result: won, +€3.00.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1206
+3.00 €won
Kelly said 19.2% on Under 3.5 Offsides (Crystal Palace – Newcastle) at 1.75, the quarter staked €4.17; result: lost, −€4.17.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1197
-4.17 €lost
Kelly said 14.5% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Monaco – Lille) at 2.10, the quarter staked €4.26; result: won, +€4.69.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1194
+4.69 €won
Kelly said 26.6% on Over 2.5 Offsides (Monaco – Lille) at 1.60, the quarter staked €4.30; result: won, +€2.58.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1193
+2.58 €won
Kelly said 13.9% on Frosinone Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Atalanta – Frosinone) at 2.15, the quarter staked €4.34; result: lost, −€4.34.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1192
-4.34 €lost
Kelly said 13.2% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Manchester United – Bournemouth) at 2.32, the quarter staked €4.52; result: lost, −€4.52.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Premier League · ticket #1186
-4.52 €lost
Kelly said 19.8% on Lille Over 1.5 Offsides (Monaco – Lille) at 2.15, the quarter staked €4.57; result: won, +€5.26.
Sun 25 Oct 18:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1177
+5.26 €won
Kelly said 4.6% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (NEC Nijmegen – Groningen) at 1.67, the quarter staked €1.97; result: won, +€1.32.
Sun 25 Oct 17:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1274
+1.32 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (NEC Nijmegen – Groningen) at 1.57, the quarter staked €2.35; result: won, +€1.34.
Sun 25 Oct 17:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1256
+1.34 €won
Kelly said 14.3% on Feyenoord Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (PSV Eindhoven – Feyenoord) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.15; result: lost, −€3.15.
Sun 25 Oct 17:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1227
-3.15 €lost
Kelly said 9.2% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (NEC Nijmegen – Groningen) at 1.95, the quarter staked €3.25; result: won, +€3.09.
Sun 25 Oct 17:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1224
+3.09 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (Konyaspor – Gençlerbirliği S.K.) at 1.67, the quarter staked €2.26; result: won, +€1.51.
Sun 25 Oct 17:00 · Süper Lig · ticket #1260
+1.51 €won
Kelly said 5.0% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Konyaspor – Gençlerbirliği S.K.) at 2.02, the quarter staked €2.40; result: won, +€2.45.
Sun 25 Oct 17:00 · Süper Lig · ticket #1254
+2.45 €won
Kelly said 7.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Sabadell – Tenerife) at 1.70, the quarter staked €2.50; result: lost, −€2.50.
Sun 25 Oct 17:00 · Segunda División · ticket #1250
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.