Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 10 of 12
Kelly said 4.6% on Nashville SC Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (CF Montreal – Nashville SC) at 2.02, the quarter staked €2.12; result: lost, −€2.12.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1119
-2.12 €lost
Kelly said 13.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Atletico Madrid – Deportivo La Coruna) at 1.36, the quarter staked €2.14; result: lost, −€2.14.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · La Liga · ticket #1118
-2.14 €lost
Kelly said 19.2% on Lens Under 2.5 Offsides (Lens – Paris FC) at 1.26, the quarter staked €2.22; result: won, +€0.58.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1114
+0.58 €won
Kelly said 5.2% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Asteras Tripolis – Levadiakos) at 2.00, the quarter staked €2.36; result: lost, −€2.36.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Super League 1 · ticket #1108
-2.36 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on ADO Den Haag Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (ADO Den Haag – Heerenveen) at 1.82, the quarter staked €2.41; result: won, +€1.98.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Eredivisie · ticket #1106
+1.98 €won
Kelly said 19.9% on Chelsea Over 0.5 Offsides (Chelsea – Tottenham) at 1.30, the quarter staked €2.61; result: won, +€0.78.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Premier League · ticket #1098
+0.78 €won
Kelly said 12.8% on Under 4.5 Offsides (Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt) at 1.47, the quarter staked €2.64; result: lost, −€2.64.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Bundesliga · ticket #1097
-2.64 €lost
Kelly said 9.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Napoli – AS Roma) at 1.67, the quarter staked €2.69; result: lost, −€2.69.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1095
-2.69 €lost
Kelly said 8.0% on Willem II Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Willem II – Cambuur) at 1.82, the quarter staked €2.78; result: lost, −€2.78.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Eredivisie · ticket #1092
-2.78 €lost
Kelly said 9.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Leganes – Mallorca) at 1.75, the quarter staked €2.80; result: lost, −€2.80.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Segunda División · ticket #1091
-2.80 €lost
Kelly said 33.7% on Rapid Under 2.5 Offsides (FCSB – Rapid) at 1.21, the quarter staked €2.98; result: won, +€0.63.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Liga I · ticket #1085
+0.63 €won
Kelly said 18.7% on KVC Westerlo Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (KVC Westerlo – SK Beveren) at 1.41, the quarter staked €3.13; result: won, +€1.28.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1080
+1.28 €won
Kelly said 13.3% on Eintracht Frankfurt Under 2.5 Offsides (Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.23; result: lost, −€3.23.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Bundesliga · ticket #1077
-3.23 €lost
Kelly said 10.0% on Lens Under 1.5 Offsides (Lens – Paris FC) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.33; result: won, +€2.76.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1074
+2.76 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Under 3.5 Offsides (Borussia Dortmund – Eintracht Frankfurt) at 2.05, the quarter staked €3.43; result: lost, −€3.43.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Bundesliga · ticket #1070
-3.43 €lost
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Alverca – Arouca) at 1.80, the quarter staked €3.57; result: won, +€2.86.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1066
+2.86 €won
Kelly said 16.1% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Valencia – Villarreal) at 1.59, the quarter staked €3.60; result: won, +€2.12.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · La Liga · ticket #1065
+2.12 €won
Kelly said 11.5% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Chelsea – Tottenham) at 1.85, the quarter staked €3.64; result: won, +€3.09.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Premier League · ticket #1064
+3.09 €won
Kelly said 10.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (KVC Westerlo – SK Beveren) at 1.93, the quarter staked €3.71; result: lost, −€3.71.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1062
-3.71 €lost
Kelly said 14.0% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Napoli – AS Roma) at 1.76, the quarter staked €3.75; result: lost, −€3.75.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1060
-3.75 €lost
Kelly said 12.0% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Lazio – Parma) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.03; result: lost, −€4.03.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1052
-4.03 €lost
Kelly said 11.8% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Banfield – Lanus) at 2.25, the quarter staked €4.32; result: lost, −€4.32.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1042
-4.32 €lost
Kelly said 14.7% on Napoli Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Napoli – AS Roma) at 2.25, the quarter staked €4.50; result: won, +€5.62.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1032
+5.62 €won
Kelly said 20.2% on Zulte Waregem Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (RAAL La Louvière – Zulte Waregem) at 2.07, the quarter staked €4.54; result: won, +€4.86.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1028
+4.86 €won
Kelly said 20.3% on Levadiakos Over 1.5 Offsides (Asteras Tripolis – Levadiakos) at 2.07, the quarter staked €4.59; result: won, +€4.91.
Sun 25 Oct 00:04 · Super League 1 · ticket #1026
+4.91 €won
Kelly said 7.2% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (QPR – Swansea) at 2.04, the quarter staked €3.10; result: lost, −€3.10.
Sat 24 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1081
-3.10 €lost
Kelly said 11.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Wolves – Watford) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.53; result: won, +€2.93.
Sat 24 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1067
+2.93 €won
Kelly said 9.0% on Arges Pitesti Over 0.5 Offsides (Arges Pitesti – Uta Arad) at 1.26, the quarter staked €1.55; result: won, +€0.40.
Sat 24 Oct 20:08 · Liga I · ticket #1151
+0.40 €won
Kelly said 8.4% on Over 2.5 Offsides (Arges Pitesti – Uta Arad) at 1.68, the quarter staked €2.44; result: lost, −€2.44.
Sat 24 Oct 20:08 · Liga I · ticket #1105
-2.44 €lost
Kelly said 12.7% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Estrela – Casa Pia) at 1.45, the quarter staked €2.51; result: won, +€1.13.
Sat 24 Oct 20:08 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1102
+1.13 €won
Kelly said 13.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Estrela – Casa Pia) at 1.80, the quarter staked €3.91; result: won, +€3.13.
Sat 24 Oct 20:08 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1056
+3.13 €won
Kelly said 12.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Preston – West Brom) at 1.67, the quarter staked €3.29; result: won, +€2.20.
Sat 24 Oct 19:32 · Championship · ticket #1075
+2.20 €won
Kelly said 6.3% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Coventry – Fulham) at 1.52, the quarter staked €1.72; result: won, +€0.89.
Sat 24 Oct 19:10 · Premier League · ticket #1140
+0.89 €won
Kelly said 5.5% on Antwerp Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Antwerp – Charleroi) at 1.47, the quarter staked €1.58; result: won, +€0.74.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1149
+0.74 €won
Kelly said 7.6% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Cardiff – Birmingham) at 1.42, the quarter staked €1.69; result: won, +€0.71.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1142
+0.71 €won
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Blackburn – Wrexham) at 1.67, the quarter staked €1.74; result: won, +€1.17.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1139
+1.17 €won
Kelly said 10.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Lincoln – Burnley) at 1.45, the quarter staked €2.18; result: won, +€0.98.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1116
+0.98 €won
Kelly said 11.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Coventry – Fulham) at 1.52, the quarter staked €2.59; result: won, +€1.35.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1099
+1.35 €won
Kelly said 16.3% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Preston – West Brom) at 1.40, the quarter staked €2.75; result: won, +€1.10.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1093
+1.10 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (West Ham – Southampton) at 1.91, the quarter staked €3.16; result: lost, −€3.16.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1079
-3.16 €lost
Kelly said 10.0% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Falkirk – Kilmarnock) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.36; result: won, +€2.79.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Premiership · ticket #1073
+2.79 €won
Kelly said 11.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Cardiff – Birmingham) at 1.78, the quarter staked €3.39; result: won, +€2.64.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1072
+2.64 €won
Kelly said 16.6% on Cardiff Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Cardiff – Birmingham) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.68; result: won, +€2.21.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1063
+2.21 €won
Kelly said 15.3% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Preston – West Brom) at 1.70, the quarter staked €3.83; result: lost, −€3.83.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1058
-3.83 €lost
Kelly said 14.6% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Arsenal – Everton) at 1.95, the quarter staked €4.28; result: won, +€4.07.
Sat 24 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1044
+4.07 €won
Kelly said 0.9% on Werder Bremen Over 0.5 Offsides (FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen) at 1.23, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1168
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 2.9% on FSV Mainz 05 Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen) at 1.76, the quarter staked €1.10; result: lost, −€1.10.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1152
-1.10 €lost
Kelly said 7.0% on Over 2.5 Offsides (FC Augsburg – Union Berlin) at 1.40, the quarter staked €1.61; result: lost, −€1.61.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1147
-1.61 €lost
Kelly said 5.7% on 1. FC Köln Over 1.5 Offsides (1. FC Köln – FC Schalke 04) at 1.50, the quarter staked €1.63; result: won, +€0.81.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1146
+0.81 €won
Kelly said 5.3% on Under 4.5 Offsides (RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg) at 1.78, the quarter staked €1.93; result: won, +€1.51.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.