Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 1 of 12
Kelly said 11.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Mlada Boleslav – Hradec Králové) at 1.36, the quarter staked €3.76; result: won, +€1.35.
Sun 01 Nov 16:00 · Czech Liga · ticket #1714
+1.35 €won
Kelly said 4.1% on PEC Zwolle Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (PEC Zwolle – ADO Den Haag) at 1.78, the quarter staked €3.47; result: lost, −€3.47.
Sun 01 Nov 15:31 · Eredivisie · ticket #1722
-3.47 €lost
Kelly said 1.2% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Colorado Rapids – Chicago Fire) at 1.55, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 01 Nov 06:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1655
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 4.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Colorado Rapids – Chicago Fire) at 2.02, the quarter staked €3.40; result: lost, −€3.40.
Sun 01 Nov 06:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1608
-3.40 €lost
Kelly said 10.1% on Chicago Fire Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Colorado Rapids – Chicago Fire) at 1.93, the quarter staked €4.78; result: won, +€4.45.
Sun 01 Nov 06:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1574
+4.45 €won
Kelly said 9.7% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Nautico Recife – Avai) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.93; result: won, +€4.93.
Sun 01 Nov 03:00 · Serie B · ticket #1571
+4.93 €won
Kelly said 3.0% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Los Angeles Galaxy – Austin) at 1.44, the quarter staked €1.81; result: won, +€0.80.
Sun 01 Nov 02:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1645
+0.80 €won
Kelly said 4.5% on Real Salt Lake Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (San Jose Earthquakes – Real Salt Lake) at 1.72, the quarter staked €2.92; result: won, +€2.10.
Sun 01 Nov 02:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1623
+2.10 €won
Kelly said 6.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Los Angeles Galaxy – Austin) at 1.82, the quarter staked €3.57; result: won, +€2.93.
Sun 01 Nov 02:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1603
+2.93 €won
Kelly said 4.5% on Cambuur Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Cambuur – GO Ahead Eagles) at 1.70, the quarter staked €2.89; result: lost, −€2.89.
Sun 01 Nov 01:33 · Eredivisie · ticket #1624
-2.89 €lost
Kelly said 6.2% on O'Higgins Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (O'Higgins – Nublense) at 2.05, the quarter staked €4.11; result: lost, −€4.11.
Sun 01 Nov 01:33 · Primera División · ticket #1589
-4.11 €lost
Kelly said 9.8% on Austin Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Los Angeles Galaxy – Austin) at 1.78, the quarter staked €4.46; result: won, +€3.48.
Sun 01 Nov 01:33 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1581
+3.48 €won
Kelly said 12.5% on Alianza Atletico Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Alianza Atletico – Juan Pablo II College) at 1.72, the quarter staked €4.73; result: won, +€3.41.
Sun 01 Nov 01:33 · Primera División · ticket #1575
+3.41 €won
Kelly said 2.7% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Vila Nova – Juventude) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.77; result: won, +€1.42.
Sun 01 Nov 01:00 · Serie B · ticket #1636
+1.42 €won
Kelly said 2.0% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Sporting Kansas City – FC Dallas) at 1.62, the quarter staked €1.23; result: lost, −€1.23.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1646
-1.23 €lost
Kelly said 3.2% on Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (Charlotte – Orlando City SC) at 1.56, the quarter staked €1.98; result: won, +€1.11.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1640
+1.11 €won
Kelly said 5.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Petrolul Ploiesti – CFR 1907 Cluj) at 1.50, the quarter staked €2.86; result: lost, −€2.86.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Liga I · ticket #1625
-2.86 €lost
Kelly said 8.3% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Petrolul Ploiesti – CFR 1907 Cluj) at 1.93, the quarter staked €4.50; result: lost, −€4.50.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Liga I · ticket #1580
-4.50 €lost
Kelly said 12.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Albacete – Sabadell) at 1.77, the quarter staked €4.83; result: lost, −€4.83.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Segunda División · ticket #1573
-4.83 €lost
Kelly said 10.4% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Charlotte – Orlando City SC) at 2.23, the quarter staked €5.39; result: won, +€6.63.
Sun 01 Nov 00:31 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1562
+6.63 €won
Kelly said 0.3% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (CSKA Sofia – Slavia Sofia) at 1.75, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.75.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · First League · ticket #1659
+0.75 €won
Kelly said 0.5% on Tottenham Under 1.5 Offsides (Tottenham – Crystal Palace) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Premier League · ticket #1657
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 1.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Aston Villa – Fulham) at 1.31, the quarter staked €1.10; result: won, +€0.34.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Premier League · ticket #1656
+0.34 €won
Kelly said 0.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Catanzaro – Padova) at 1.83, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.83.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Serie B · ticket #1654
+0.83 €won
Kelly said 1.2% on Under 3.5 Offsides (Tottenham – Crystal Palace) at 1.76, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.76.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Premier League · ticket #1651
+0.76 €won
Kelly said 2.6% on Heerenveen Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Heerenveen – NEC Nijmegen) at 1.65, the quarter staked €1.63; result: lost, −€1.63.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Eredivisie · ticket #1641
-1.63 €lost
Kelly said 2.7% on Philadelphia Union Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (FC Cincinnati – Philadelphia Union) at 1.68, the quarter staked €1.71; result: won, +€1.16.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1639
+1.16 €won
Kelly said 6.1% on Standard Liege Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Standard Liege – Kortrijk) at 1.38, the quarter staked €2.61; result: lost, −€2.61.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1635
-2.61 €lost
Kelly said 6.0% on Talleres Cordoba Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Deportivo Riestra – Talleres Cordoba) at 1.47, the quarter staked €2.79; result: won, +€1.31.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1628
+1.31 €won
Kelly said 5.3% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Columbus Crew – DC United) at 1.62, the quarter staked €2.95; result: won, +€1.83.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1622
+1.83 €won
Kelly said 12.0% on Aston Villa Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Aston Villa – Fulham) at 1.31, the quarter staked €3.10; result: won, +€0.96.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Premier League · ticket #1617
+0.96 €won
Kelly said 12.3% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund) at 1.31, the quarter staked €3.14; result: won, +€0.97.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Bundesliga · ticket #1616
+0.97 €won
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Standard Liege – Kortrijk) at 1.39, the quarter staked €3.47; result: lost, −€3.47.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1606
-3.47 €lost
Kelly said 5.9% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Coritiba – Vitoria) at 1.80, the quarter staked €3.54; result: won, +€2.83.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Serie A · ticket #1604
+2.83 €won
Kelly said 8.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Aston Villa – Fulham) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.65; result: won, +€2.26.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Premier League · ticket #1601
+2.26 €won
Kelly said 10.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Estac Troyes – Le Mans) at 1.56, the quarter staked €3.95; result: lost, −€3.95.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1593
-3.95 €lost
Kelly said 9.9% on Petrolul Ploiesti Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Petrolul Ploiesti – CFR 1907 Cluj) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.15; result: lost, −€4.15.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Liga I · ticket #1588
-4.15 €lost
Kelly said 11.5% on Kortrijk Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Standard Liege – Kortrijk) at 1.78, the quarter staked €4.69; result: lost, −€4.69.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1576
-4.69 €lost
Kelly said 10.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Udinese – AS Roma) at 2.02, the quarter staked €5.13; result: lost, −€5.13.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Serie A · ticket #1567
-5.13 €lost
Kelly said 19.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund) at 1.60, the quarter staked €5.23; result: won, +€3.14.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Bundesliga · ticket #1565
+3.14 €won
Kelly said 12.5% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Estac Troyes – Le Mans) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.29; result: lost, −€5.29.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1564
-5.29 €lost
Kelly said 11.0% on Talleres Cordoba Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Deportivo Riestra – Talleres Cordoba) at 2.15, the quarter staked €5.34; result: won, +€6.14.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1563
+6.14 €won
Kelly said 12.7% on Ajax Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Ajax – AZ Alkmaar) at 2.07, the quarter staked €5.45; result: won, +€5.83.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Eredivisie · ticket #1561
+5.83 €won
Kelly said 16.2% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Kifisia – Olympiakos Piraeus) at 2.32, the quarter staked €5.73; result: lost, −€5.73.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Super League 1 · ticket #1552
-5.73 €lost
Kelly said 18.2% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Bayern München – Borussia Dortmund) at 2.20, the quarter staked €5.79; result: won, +€6.95.
Sun 01 Nov 00:03 · Bundesliga · ticket #1551
+6.95 €won
Kelly said 1.1% on Fortuna Sittard Over 1.5 Yellow Cards (Feyenoord – Fortuna Sittard) at 1.75, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 31 Oct 23:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1652
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 4.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Moreirense – Estrela) at 1.60, the quarter staked €2.66; result: won, +€1.60.
Sat 31 Oct 23:30 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1633
+1.60 €won
Kelly said 3.6% on Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Feyenoord – Fortuna Sittard) at 1.75, the quarter staked €2.42; result: lost, −€2.42.
Sat 31 Oct 23:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1632
-2.42 €lost
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Moreirense – Estrela) at 2.07, the quarter staked €3.68; result: won, +€3.94.
Sat 31 Oct 23:30 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1600
+3.94 €won
Kelly said 5.2% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Rayo Vallecano – Celta Vigo) at 2.10, the quarter staked €3.91; result: lost, −€3.91.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.