Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 7 of 12
Kelly said 19.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe – Universitatea Craiova) at 1.65, the quarter staked €5.48; result: lost, −€5.48.
Mon 26 Oct 22:32 · Liga I · ticket #1300
-5.48 €lost
Kelly said 24.8% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.64; result: won, +€3.78.
Mon 26 Oct 22:32 · Süper Lig · ticket #1296
+3.78 €won
Kelly said 17.1% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Sepsi OSK Sfantu Gheorghe – Universitatea Craiova) at 2.10, the quarter staked €5.70; result: lost, −€5.70.
Mon 26 Oct 22:32 · Liga I · ticket #1294
-5.70 €lost
Kelly said 6.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (AEK Larnaca – Omonia Nicosia) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.81; result: lost, −€4.81.
Mon 26 Oct 21:31 · 1. Division · ticket #1314
-4.81 €lost
Kelly said 8.5% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (CSKA Sofia – Ludogorets) at 2.02, the quarter staked €5.21; result: lost, −€5.21.
Mon 26 Oct 21:31 · First League · ticket #1306
-5.21 €lost
Kelly said 3.9% on Trabzonspor Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Rizespor – Trabzonspor) at 1.52, the quarter staked €4.48; result: won, +€2.33.
Mon 26 Oct 20:01 · Süper Lig · ticket #1319
+2.33 €won
Kelly said 2.0% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Barracas Central – Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto) at 1.57, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1286
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Barracas Central – Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto) at 1.88, the quarter staked €1.70; result: won, +€1.50.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1275
+1.50 €won
Kelly said 7.0% on Deportes Limache Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Universidad de Concepcion – Deportes Limache) at 1.72, the quarter staked €2.38; result: won, +€1.71.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Primera División · ticket #1255
+1.71 €won
Kelly said 5.7% on Under 7.5 Shots on Target (Barracas Central – Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto) at 2.10, the quarter staked €2.68; result: lost, −€2.68.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1243
-2.68 €lost
Kelly said 7.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Deportes Tolima – Deportivo Pasto) at 2.05, the quarter staked €2.94; result: lost, −€2.94.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Primera A · ticket #1234
-2.94 €lost
Kelly said 10.9% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Atletico Nacional – Independiente Medellin) at 2.10, the quarter staked €3.89; result: won, +€4.28.
Mon 26 Oct 16:00 · Primera A · ticket #1205
+4.28 €won
Kelly said 13.5% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (River Plate – Racing Club) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.62; result: won, +€3.00.
Mon 26 Oct 02:30 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1212
+3.00 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Alianza Valledupar Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Alianza Valledupar – Internacional de Bogota) at 1.93, the quarter staked €2.76; result: lost, −€2.76.
Mon 26 Oct 01:00 · Primera A · ticket #1240
-2.76 €lost
Kelly said 19.4% on Barcelona Over 1.5 Offsides (Barcelona – Real Madrid) at 2.38, the quarter staked €4.61; result: won, +€6.36.
Mon 26 Oct 00:31 · La Liga · ticket #1176
+6.36 €won
Kelly said 5.1% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (OFI – PAOK) at 1.47, the quarter staked €1.85; result: won, +€0.87.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Super League 1 · ticket #1280
+0.87 €won
Kelly said 4.1% on Aldosivi Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Aldosivi – Belgrano Cordoba) at 1.83, the quarter staked €2.09; result: won, +€1.73.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1268
+1.73 €won
Kelly said 8.2% on PAOK Over 1.5 Offsides (OFI – PAOK) at 1.52, the quarter staked €2.24; result: lost, −€2.24.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Super League 1 · ticket #1261
-2.24 €lost
Kelly said 8.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Aldosivi – Belgrano Cordoba) at 1.63, the quarter staked €2.47; result: lost, −€2.47.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1251
-2.47 €lost
Kelly said 11.5% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Nacional – SC Braga) at 1.48, the quarter staked €2.52; result: won, +€1.21.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1249
+1.21 €won
Kelly said 14.3% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (AZ Alkmaar – Twente) at 1.42, the quarter staked €2.65; result: won, +€1.11.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Eredivisie · ticket #1244
+1.11 €won
Kelly said 7.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Aldosivi – Belgrano Cordoba) at 2.10, the quarter staked €3.09; result: won, +€3.40.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1229
+3.40 €won
Kelly said 10.4% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Nacional – SC Braga) at 1.85, the quarter staked €3.34; result: won, +€2.84.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1221
+2.84 €won
Kelly said 13.9% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (AZ Alkmaar – Twente) at 1.72, the quarter staked €3.48; result: won, +€2.51.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Eredivisie · ticket #1216
+2.51 €won
Kelly said 12.8% on Over 3.5 Offsides (OFI – PAOK) at 1.90, the quarter staked €3.77; result: lost, −€3.77.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Super League 1 · ticket #1208
-3.77 €lost
Kelly said 13.9% on Udinese Under 1.5 Offsides (Udinese – AC Milan) at 2.20, the quarter staked €4.39; result: won, +€5.27.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Serie A · ticket #1189
+5.27 €won
Kelly said 13.8% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (AZ Alkmaar – Twente) at 2.22, the quarter staked €4.43; result: won, +€5.40.
Mon 26 Oct 00:03 · Eredivisie · ticket #1188
+5.40 €won
Kelly said 12.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Rio Ave – Famalicao) at 1.62, the quarter staked €2.88; result: won, +€1.79.
Sun 25 Oct 22:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1236
+1.79 €won
Kelly said 13.5% on Famalicao Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Rio Ave – Famalicao) at 1.78, the quarter staked €3.52; result: won, +€2.75.
Sun 25 Oct 22:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1215
+2.75 €won
Kelly said 12.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Rio Ave – Famalicao) at 2.15, the quarter staked €4.21; result: won, +€4.84.
Sun 25 Oct 22:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1196
+4.84 €won
Kelly said 0.1% on Castellón Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Castellón – Sporting Gijon) at 1.61, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.61.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1289
+0.61 €won
Kelly said 0.4% on Gent Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Gent – Anderlecht) at 1.50, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.50.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1288
+0.50 €won
Kelly said 2.9% on Under 3.5 Offsides (Aris Thessalonikis – Atromitos) at 1.75, the quarter staked €1.32; result: lost, −€1.32.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Super League 1 · ticket #1281
-1.32 €lost
Kelly said 5.4% on Sporting Gijon Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Castellón – Sporting Gijon) at 1.62, the quarter staked €2.02; result: won, +€1.25.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1271
+1.25 €won
Kelly said 4.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Castellón – Sporting Gijon) at 1.78, the quarter staked €2.04; result: won, +€1.59.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Segunda División · ticket #1270
+1.59 €won
Kelly said 4.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Aris Thessalonikis – Atromitos) at 1.90, the quarter staked €2.15; result: won, +€1.93.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Super League 1 · ticket #1265
+1.93 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Over 2.5 Offsides (Real Sociedad – Levante) at 1.67, the quarter staked €2.28; result: lost, −€2.28.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · La Liga · ticket #1259
-2.28 €lost
Kelly said 6.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Gent – Anderlecht) at 1.85, the quarter staked €2.45; result: lost, −€2.45.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1252
-2.45 €lost
Kelly said 7.2% on Anderlecht Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Gent – Anderlecht) at 1.78, the quarter staked €2.58; result: lost, −€2.58.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1247
-2.58 €lost
Kelly said 8.7% on Real Sociedad Over 1.5 Offsides (Real Sociedad – Levante) at 1.75, the quarter staked €2.71; result: lost, −€2.71.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · La Liga · ticket #1242
-2.71 €lost
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Lecce – Juventus) at 2.08, the quarter staked €3.93; result: won, +€4.24.
Sun 25 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1204
+4.24 €won
Kelly said 5.1% on Dinamo Bucuresti Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (CFR 1907 Cluj – Dinamo Bucuresti) at 1.63, the quarter staked €2.00; result: lost, −€2.00.
Sun 25 Oct 21:01 · Liga I · ticket #1272
-2.00 €lost
Kelly said 6.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Auxerre – Le Mans) at 1.62, the quarter staked €2.19; result: won, +€1.36.
Sun 25 Oct 21:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1263
+1.36 €won
Kelly said 11.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (CFR 1907 Cluj – Dinamo Bucuresti) at 1.45, the quarter staked €2.42; result: lost, −€2.42.
Sun 25 Oct 21:01 · Liga I · ticket #1253
-2.42 €lost
Kelly said 1.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Sunderland – Leeds) at 1.85, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.85.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Premier League · ticket #1284
+0.85 €won
Kelly said 3.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Angers – Lorient) at 1.40, the quarter staked €1.52; result: won, +€0.61.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1283
+0.61 €won
Kelly said 2.5% on Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Sparta Rotterdam – Ajax) at 1.70, the quarter staked €1.14; result: won, +€0.80.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Eredivisie · ticket #1282
+0.80 €won
Kelly said 6.1% on Angers Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Angers – Lorient) at 1.44, the quarter staked €1.89; result: won, +€0.83.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1278
+0.83 €won
Kelly said 4.3% on SC Freiburg Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (SC Freiburg – Bayern München) at 1.98, the quarter staked €2.21; result: lost, −€2.21.
Sun 25 Oct 20:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #1262
-2.21 €lost
Kelly said 9.3% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Rennes – Strasbourg) at 1.87, the quarter staked €3.06; result: lost, −€3.06.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.