Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 6 of 12
Kelly said 7.5% on Over 8.5 Corners (Corvinul Hunedoara – Rapid) at 1.68, the quarter staked €4.78; result: won, +€3.25.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1361
+3.25 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Over 9.5 Corners (Corvinul Hunedoara – Rapid) at 2.05, the quarter staked €4.88; result: lost, −€4.88.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1359
-4.88 €lost
Kelly said 29.6% on Grazer AK Under 6.5 Corners (Grazer AK – SCR Altach) at 1.31, the quarter staked €5.13; result: won, +€1.59.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cup · ticket #1351
+1.59 €won
Kelly said 3.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Chico – Junior) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.12; result: won, +€4.12.
Wed 28 Oct 05:51 · Primera A · ticket #1395
+4.12 €won
Kelly said 5.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Ceara – Goias) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.55; result: won, +€3.05.
Wed 28 Oct 05:51 · Serie B · ticket #1367
+3.05 €won
Kelly said 4.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Ceara – Goias) at 1.92, the quarter staked €4.64; result: lost, −€4.64.
Wed 28 Oct 05:51 · Serie B · ticket #1365
-4.64 €lost
Kelly said 4.3% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Argentinos JRS – Independ. Rivadavia) at 1.62, the quarter staked €4.28; result: won, +€2.65.
Wed 28 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1373
+2.65 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Independ. Rivadavia Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Argentinos JRS – Independ. Rivadavia) at 1.76, the quarter staked €4.69; result: won, +€3.56.
Wed 28 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1363
+3.56 €won
Kelly said 6.9% on Argentinos JRS Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Argentinos JRS – Independ. Rivadavia) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.73; result: lost, −€4.73.
Wed 28 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1362
-4.73 €lost
Kelly said 7.1% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Fleetwood Town – Arsenal) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.69; result: won, +€3.75.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1391
+3.75 €won
Kelly said 0.2% on 1. FC Köln Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (1. FC Köln – Union Berlin) at 1.90, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.90.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1380
+0.90 €won
Kelly said 0.9% on Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Borussia Mönchengladbach – Karlsruher SC) at 1.60, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1379
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 10.2% on Peterborough Over 2.5 Corners (Bradford – Peterborough) at 1.32, the quarter staked €4.33; result: won, +€1.39.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1372
+1.39 €won
Kelly said 10.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Bradford – Peterborough) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.93; result: lost, −€4.93.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1358
-4.93 €lost
Kelly said 8.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (AS Roma – Cagliari) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.98; result: lost, −€4.98.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · Serie A · ticket #1357
-4.98 €lost
Kelly said 16.8% on Peterborough Over 3.5 Corners (Bradford – Peterborough) at 1.80, the quarter staked €5.29; result: won, +€4.23.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1342
+4.23 €won
Kelly said 15.2% on Over 9.5 Corners (Fleetwood Town – Arsenal) at 1.96, the quarter staked €5.34; result: lost, −€5.34.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1340
-5.34 €lost
Kelly said 22.4% on Fleetwood Town Under 1.5 Offsides (Fleetwood Town – Arsenal) at 1.73, the quarter staked €5.39; result: lost, −€5.39.
Wed 28 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1339
-5.39 €lost
Kelly said 0.0% on Under 10.5 Corners (Helmond Sport – Willem II) at 1.82, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.82.
Tue 27 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1381
+0.82 €won
Kelly said 2.7% on Under 11.5 Corners (Telstar – Almere City FC) at 1.53, the quarter staked €2.76; result: lost, −€2.76.
Tue 27 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1376
-2.76 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Cesena – Empoli) at 2.10, the quarter staked €5.03; result: lost, −€5.03.
Tue 27 Oct 23:31 · Serie B · ticket #1356
-5.03 €lost
Kelly said 9.8% on Under 10.5 Corners (Telstar – Almere City FC) at 1.92, the quarter staked €5.08; result: lost, −€5.08.
Tue 27 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1352
-5.08 €lost
Kelly said 9.0% on Padova Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Padova – Sudtirol) at 2.05, the quarter staked €5.18; result: lost, −€5.18.
Tue 27 Oct 23:31 · Serie B · ticket #1350
-5.18 €lost
Kelly said 1.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Ascoli – Sampdoria) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.47; result: won, +€1.18.
Tue 27 Oct 23:01 · Serie B · ticket #1378
+1.18 €won
Kelly said 2.1% on Catanzaro Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Benevento – Catanzaro) at 1.57, the quarter staked €2.15; result: lost, −€2.15.
Tue 27 Oct 23:01 · Serie B · ticket #1377
-2.15 €lost
Kelly said 4.8% on Under 11.5 Corners (FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam) at 1.55, the quarter staked €4.24; result: won, +€2.33.
Tue 27 Oct 23:01 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1374
+2.33 €won
Kelly said 4.5% on Under 10.5 Corners (FC Eindhoven – FC Volendam) at 1.83, the quarter staked €4.50; result: won, +€3.73.
Tue 27 Oct 23:01 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1368
+3.73 €won
Kelly said 3.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Sassuolo – Lazio) at 1.92, the quarter staked €4.05; result: lost, −€4.05.
Tue 27 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1371
-4.05 €lost
Kelly said 23.0% on Hamburger SV Under 6.5 Corners (Hamburger SV – Eintracht Frankfurt) at 1.26, the quarter staked €4.83; result: won, +€1.26.
Tue 27 Oct 21:00 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1360
+1.26 €won
Kelly said 11.5% on Over 10.5 Corners (Rot-Weiß Essen – RB Leipzig) at 1.95, the quarter staked €5.23; result: won, +€4.97.
Tue 27 Oct 21:00 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1348
+4.97 €won
Kelly said 6.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Cherno More Varna – Septemvri Sofia) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.06; result: lost, −€4.06.
Tue 27 Oct 19:00 · First League · ticket #1389
-4.06 €lost
Kelly said 3.9% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Juventude – Nautico Recife) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.49; result: won, +€3.01.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Serie B · ticket #1318
+3.01 €won
Kelly said 5.7% on Flamengo Under 1.5 Offsides (Flamengo – Atletico-MG) at 1.60, the quarter staked €4.71; result: won, +€2.83.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1316
+2.83 €won
Kelly said 9.3% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Instituto Cordoba – Deportivo Riestra) at 1.60, the quarter staked €4.90; result: won, +€2.94.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1312
+2.94 €won
Kelly said 17.0% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Flamengo – Atletico-MG) at 1.34, the quarter staked €4.95; result: won, +€1.68.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1311
+1.68 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Under 7.5 Shots on Target (Instituto Cordoba – Deportivo Riestra) at 2.05, the quarter staked €5.05; result: won, +€5.30.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1309
+5.30 €won
Kelly said 13.4% on Instituto Cordoba Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Instituto Cordoba – Deportivo Riestra) at 1.87, the quarter staked €5.42; result: won, +€4.72.
Tue 27 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1301
+4.72 €won
Kelly said 2.3% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (America Mineiro – Cuiaba) at 1.83, the quarter staked €2.56; result: won, +€2.12.
Tue 27 Oct 02:30 · Serie B · ticket #1320
+2.12 €won
Kelly said 7.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Coritiba – Gremio) at 1.85, the quarter staked €5.00; result: lost, −€5.00.
Tue 27 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1310
-5.00 €lost
Kelly said 19.3% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Coritiba – Gremio) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.53; result: won, +€3.71.
Tue 27 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1299
+3.71 €won
Kelly said 1.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Union Santa Fe – Estudiantes L.P.) at 1.65, the quarter staked €2.07; result: won, +€1.35.
Tue 27 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1321
+1.35 €won
Kelly said 5.1% on Union Santa Fe Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Union Santa Fe – Estudiantes L.P.) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.66; result: won, +€3.03.
Tue 27 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1317
+3.03 €won
Kelly said 6.1% on Over 2.5 Offsides (Sevilla – Osasuna) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.76; result: lost, −€4.76.
Tue 27 Oct 00:04 · La Liga · ticket #1315
-4.76 €lost
Kelly said 11.2% on Over 7.5 Shots on Target (Sevilla – Osasuna) at 1.82, the quarter staked €5.26; result: won, +€4.31.
Tue 27 Oct 00:04 · La Liga · ticket #1304
+4.31 €won
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Walsall – Salford City) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.37; result: lost, −€5.37.
Tue 27 Oct 00:04 · League Two · ticket #1302
-5.37 €lost
Kelly said 20.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Paris Saint Germain – Lyon) at 1.62, the quarter staked €5.59; result: won, +€3.47.
Tue 27 Oct 00:04 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1298
+3.47 €won
Kelly said 18.0% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Paris Saint Germain – Lyon) at 1.47, the quarter staked €5.16; result: won, +€2.43.
Mon 26 Oct 23:30 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1307
+2.43 €won
Kelly said 6.6% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Santa Clara – Benfica) at 1.75, the quarter staked €4.85; result: won, +€3.64.
Mon 26 Oct 23:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1313
+3.64 €won
Kelly said 12.9% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Santa Clara – Benfica) at 1.88, the quarter staked €5.31; result: lost, −€5.31.
Mon 26 Oct 23:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1303
-5.31 €lost
Kelly said 7.8% on Galatasaray Under 1.5 Offsides (Galatasaray – Fenerbahçe) at 2.05, the quarter staked €5.10; result: lost, −€5.10.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.