Transparency
Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries .The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section Settled Won Profit (units)
VALUE 29 12 -4.7 MODEL 102 62 +3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
€607.41+107.41 €
Start €500.00
Units +30.9 1 u = €3.47
Record 342–218 86 open
Yield +5.5%
Max drawdown 7.8%
Streaks 13W · 10L best / worst run
Tracked bettor €449.51 from €500.00 · 671–447 · yield +4.1%
Real ledger (EUR) −€6.58 €23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 5 of 12
Kelly said 6.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 1.20, the quarter staked €3.13; result: won, +€0.63.
Thu 29 Oct 03:30 · League Cup · ticket #1470
+0.63 €won
Kelly said 4.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Fluminense – Internacional) at 1.77, the quarter staked €3.50; result: won, +€2.70.
Thu 29 Oct 03:30 · Serie A · ticket #1458
+2.70 €won
Kelly said 11.8% on Brighton Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 1.50, the quarter staked €4.07; result: lost, −€4.07.
Thu 29 Oct 03:30 · League Cup · ticket #1443
-4.07 €lost
Kelly said 18.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 1.42, the quarter staked €4.64; result: won, +€1.95.
Thu 29 Oct 03:30 · League Cup · ticket #1430
+1.95 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Fluminense – Internacional) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.03; result: lost, −€4.03.
Thu 29 Oct 03:00 · Serie A · ticket #1444
-4.03 €lost
Kelly said 3.0% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (RB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc) at 1.83, the quarter staked €2.55; result: won, +€2.12.
Thu 29 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1463
+2.12 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Santos – Palmeiras) at 1.73, the quarter staked €3.75; result: lost, −€3.75.
Thu 29 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1451
-3.75 €lost
Kelly said 7.9% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Santos – Palmeiras) at 1.77, the quarter staked €4.15; result: lost, −€4.15.
Thu 29 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1441
-4.15 €lost
Kelly said 9.6% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (RB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.41; result: won, +€3.22.
Thu 29 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1435
+3.22 €won
Kelly said 19.3% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (RB Bragantino – Chapecoense-sc) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.56; result: won, +€3.73.
Thu 29 Oct 02:30 · Serie A · ticket #1412
+3.73 €won
Kelly said 6.4% on Over 7.5 Corners (Dinamo Bucuresti – Chindia Targoviste) at 1.34, the quarter staked €3.28; result: won, +€1.12.
Thu 29 Oct 01:00 · Cupa României · ticket #1465
+1.12 €won
Kelly said 8.2% on Over 8.5 Corners (Dinamo Bucuresti – Chindia Targoviste) at 1.57, the quarter staked €3.83; result: lost, −€3.83.
Thu 29 Oct 01:00 · Cupa României · ticket #1449
-3.83 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on Over 9.5 Corners (Dinamo Bucuresti – Chindia Targoviste) at 1.88, the quarter staked €4.11; result: lost, −€4.11.
Thu 29 Oct 01:00 · Cupa României · ticket #1442
-4.11 €lost
Kelly said 17.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Monza – Napoli) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.45; result: won, +€3.65.
Thu 29 Oct 00:30 · Serie A · ticket #1414
+3.65 €won
Kelly said 2.6% on Fulham Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Fulham – Crystal Palace) at 1.40, the quarter staked €1.99; result: won, +€0.80.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1473
+0.80 €won
Kelly said 2.2% on Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Bayern München – 1. FC Magdeburg) at 1.65, the quarter staked €1.73; result: won, +€1.12.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1469
+1.12 €won
Kelly said 10.4% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Fulham – Crystal Palace) at 1.15, the quarter staked €3.18; result: won, +€0.48.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1468
+0.48 €won
Kelly said 4.8% on Over 9.5 Corners (Bayer Leverkusen – 1. FC Nürnberg) at 1.76, the quarter staked €3.53; result: won, +€2.68.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1457
+2.68 €won
Kelly said 9.1% on Chelsea Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Liverpool – Chelsea) at 1.41, the quarter staked €3.57; result: won, +€1.46.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1456
+1.46 €won
Kelly said 9.7% on Napoli Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Monza – Napoli) at 1.39, the quarter staked €3.64; result: won, +€1.42.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1454
+1.42 €won
Kelly said 15.2% on Brentford Under 6.5 Corners (Sunderland – Brentford) at 1.33, the quarter staked €3.91; result: won, +€1.29.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1447
+1.29 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Genoa – Juventus) at 1.80, the quarter staked €3.99; result: won, +€3.19.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1445
+3.19 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Fulham Under 5.5 Corners (Fulham – Crystal Palace) at 1.97, the quarter staked €4.54; result: lost, −€4.54.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1432
-4.54 €lost
Kelly said 10.4% on Bournemouth Under 5.5 Corners (Bournemouth – Aston Villa) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.59; result: lost, −€4.59.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1431
-4.59 €lost
Kelly said 7.6% on Genoa Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Genoa – Juventus) at 2.12, the quarter staked €4.88; result: won, +€5.47.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · Serie A · ticket #1425
+5.47 €won
Kelly said 8.0% on Over 10.5 Corners (Bayer Leverkusen – 1. FC Nürnberg) at 2.19, the quarter staked €5.13; result: won, +€6.10.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1420
+6.10 €won
Kelly said 8.8% on Aston Villa Over 4.5 Corners (Bournemouth – Aston Villa) at 2.15, the quarter staked €5.23; result: lost, −€5.23.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1418
-5.23 €lost
Kelly said 16.4% on Hannover 96 Under 6.5 Corners (Hannover 96 – 1. FC Kaiserslautern) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.34; result: lost, −€5.34.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1416
-5.34 €lost
Kelly said 14.8% on Liverpool Over 1.5 Offsides (Liverpool – Chelsea) at 1.87, the quarter staked €5.50; result: lost, −€5.50.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1413
-5.50 €lost
Kelly said 21.2% on Brentford Under 5.5 Corners (Sunderland – Brentford) at 1.68, the quarter staked €5.67; result: won, +€3.86.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1409
+3.86 €won
Kelly said 13.8% on Brentford Under 4.5 Corners (Sunderland – Brentford) at 2.13, the quarter staked €5.78; result: lost, −€5.78.
Thu 29 Oct 00:04 · League Cup · ticket #1407
-5.78 €lost
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 11.5 Corners (PEC Zwolle – FC OSS) at 1.65, the quarter staked €3.43; result: lost, −€3.43.
Wed 28 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1460
-3.43 €lost
Kelly said 8.2% on Under 11.5 Corners (VVV Venlo – Vitesse) at 1.53, the quarter staked €3.79; result: lost, −€3.79.
Wed 28 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1450
-3.79 €lost
Kelly said 8.9% on Under 10.5 Corners (VVV Venlo – Vitesse) at 1.83, the quarter staked €4.50; result: lost, −€4.50.
Wed 28 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1433
-4.50 €lost
Kelly said 7.9% on Under 10.5 Corners (PEC Zwolle – FC OSS) at 2.05, the quarter staked €4.68; result: lost, −€4.68.
Wed 28 Oct 23:31 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1429
-4.68 €lost
Kelly said 3.3% on Parma Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Parma – Udinese) at 1.30, the quarter staked €2.53; result: won, +€0.76.
Wed 28 Oct 22:01 · Serie A · ticket #1474
+0.76 €won
Kelly said 3.7% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Parma – Udinese) at 1.46, the quarter staked €2.98; result: won, +€1.37.
Wed 28 Oct 22:01 · Serie A · ticket #1467
+1.37 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Pisa – Palermo) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.87; result: won, +€2.40.
Wed 28 Oct 22:01 · Serie B · ticket #1448
+2.40 €won
Kelly said 7.7% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Pisa – Palermo) at 2.15, the quarter staked €4.92; result: won, +€5.66.
Wed 28 Oct 22:01 · Serie B · ticket #1424
+5.66 €won
Kelly said 0.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Venezia – Inter) at 1.45, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.45.
Wed 28 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1477
+0.45 €won
Kelly said 4.5% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Venezia – Inter) at 1.93, the quarter staked €3.72; result: won, +€3.46.
Wed 28 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1452
+3.46 €won
Kelly said 3.6% on FC Schalke 04 Over 1.5 Yellow Cards (Dynamo Dresden – FC Schalke 04) at 1.95, the quarter staked €3.09; result: won, +€2.94.
Wed 28 Oct 21:01 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1459
+2.94 €won
Kelly said 7.7% on FC Schalke 04 Under 5.5 Corners (Dynamo Dresden – FC Schalke 04) at 1.86, the quarter staked €4.24; result: won, +€3.65.
Wed 28 Oct 21:01 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1439
+3.65 €won
Kelly said 8.3% on Over 10.5 Corners (SC Freiburg – VfL Wolfsburg) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.73; result: lost, −€4.73.
Wed 28 Oct 21:01 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1428
-4.73 €lost
Kelly said 13.8% on VfB Stuttgart Over 5.5 Corners (SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart) at 1.71, the quarter staked €5.18; result: won, +€3.68.
Wed 28 Oct 21:01 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1419
+3.68 €won
Kelly said 13.6% on VfB Stuttgart Over 6.5 Corners (SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart) at 2.15, the quarter staked €5.73; result: lost, −€5.73.
Wed 28 Oct 21:01 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1408
-5.73 €lost
Kelly said 4.5% on Over 7.5 Corners (Uta Arad – FC Botosani) at 1.34, the quarter staked €4.20; result: won, +€1.43.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1375
+1.43 €won
Kelly said 6.1% on Over 8.5 Corners (Uta Arad – FC Botosani) at 1.57, the quarter staked €4.41; result: won, +€2.51.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1370
+2.51 €won
Kelly said 8.6% on Over 7.5 Corners (Corvinul Hunedoara – Rapid) at 1.42, the quarter staked €4.46; result: won, +€1.87.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1369
+1.87 €won
Kelly said 4.6% on Over 9.5 Corners (Uta Arad – FC Botosani) at 1.88, the quarter staked €4.59; result: won, +€4.04.
Wed 28 Oct 07:30 · Cupa României · ticket #1366
+4.04 €won
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band Picks Predicted Hit Gap
50–60% 549 55.2% 51.5% -3.6 pp 60–70% 554 64.4% 63.0% -1.4 pp 70–80% 279 74.4% 73.5% -0.9 pp 80–90% 108 83.6% 78.7% -4.9 pp 90–100% 13 92.4% 92.3% -0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market Picks With a close CLV Beat the close Settled Won
corners 223 221 +0.6% 32% 209 131 fouls 8 7 −0.8% 0% 8 4 goals 95 95 −0.1% 36% 87 50 offsides 241 237 +4.6% 57% 229 150 shots 5 5 +1.2% 60% 5 4 shots_on_target 255 244 +2.1% 43% 245 134 yellow_cards 753 688 +2.7% 40% 655 427
By month
Month Tickets Won Hit rate Yield P/L CLV
2026-11 45 26 58% +0.2% €0.10 +3.5% 2026-10 1092 645 60% +4.3% €57.30 +2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers .
BetAgent is a statistical prediction model that lives day by day. All data is recorded as it happens and the history has never been modified since the system was born. Purely informational: no responsibility for your losses or for how you use the information; we do not condone or encourage betting; no guarantee of profit; 18+ only; betting may be illegal where you live, check your local law; not financial advice.