Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 4 of 12
Kelly said 3.9% on Standard Liege Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Genk – Standard Liege) at 1.26, the quarter staked €1.70; result: lost, −€1.70.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1287
-1.70 €lost
Kelly said 1.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Hellas Verona – Pisa) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Serie B · ticket #1285
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on Lecce Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Lecce – Juventus) at 1.55, the quarter staked €2.13; result: lost, −€2.13.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Serie A · ticket #1266
-2.13 €lost
Kelly said 5.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Union La Calera – U. Catolica) at 1.82, the quarter staked €2.31; result: lost, −€2.31.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Primera División · ticket #1258
-2.31 €lost
Kelly said 14.9% on Genk Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Genk – Standard Liege) at 1.38, the quarter staked €2.60; result: lost, −€2.60.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1246
-2.60 €lost
Kelly said 13.6% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Athletic Club – Getafe) at 1.78, the quarter staked €3.59; result: lost, −€3.59.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · La Liga · ticket #1213
-3.59 €lost
Kelly said 8.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (KVC Westerlo – SK Beveren) at 1.47, the quarter staked €1.84; result: lost, −€1.84.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1133
-1.84 €lost
Kelly said 11.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Santos – Bahia) at 2.00, the quarter staked €3.99; result: lost, −€3.99.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Serie A · ticket #1054
-3.99 €lost
Kelly said 5.5% on Abha Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Abha – Al-Ittihad FC) at 1.52, the quarter staked €4.38; result: lost, −€4.38.
Fri 30 Oct 16:30 · Pro League · ticket #1544
-4.38 €lost
Kelly said 7.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Abha – Al-Ittihad FC) at 1.55, the quarter staked €4.56; result: won, +€2.51.
Fri 30 Oct 16:30 · Pro League · ticket #1540
+2.51 €won
Kelly said 8.0% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Abha – Al-Ittihad FC) at 2.07, the quarter staked €5.52; result: lost, −€5.52.
Fri 30 Oct 16:30 · Pro League · ticket #1521
-5.52 €lost
Kelly said 6.6% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Gremio – Atletico Paranaense) at 1.83, the quarter staked €5.24; result: lost, −€5.24.
Fri 30 Oct 04:31 · Serie A · ticket #1497
-5.24 €lost
Kelly said 6.0% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Vasco DA Gama – Flamengo) at 1.83, the quarter staked €5.13; result: won, +€4.26.
Fri 30 Oct 03:00 · Serie A · ticket #1499
+4.26 €won
Kelly said 11.1% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Atletico-MG – Cruzeiro) at 1.88, the quarter staked €5.62; result: lost, −€5.62.
Fri 30 Oct 03:00 · Serie A · ticket #1490
-5.62 €lost
Kelly said 12.5% on Over 8.5 Corners (FC Midtjylland – Odense) at 1.46, the quarter staked €5.29; result: won, +€2.43.
Fri 30 Oct 02:30 · DBU Pokalen · ticket #1496
+2.43 €won
Kelly said 13.1% on Over 9.5 Corners (FC Midtjylland – Odense) at 1.75, the quarter staked €5.68; result: won, +€4.26.
Fri 30 Oct 02:30 · DBU Pokalen · ticket #1489
+4.26 €won
Kelly said 14.8% on Over 10.5 Corners (FC Midtjylland – Odense) at 2.25, the quarter staked €5.85; result: won, +€7.31.
Fri 30 Oct 02:30 · DBU Pokalen · ticket #1485
+7.31 €won
Kelly said 8.2% on Over 9.5 Corners (Austria Lustenau – Sturm Graz) at 1.75, the quarter staked €5.40; result: won, +€4.05.
Fri 30 Oct 01:01 · Cup · ticket #1494
+4.05 €won
Kelly said 21.5% on Austria Lustenau Over 2.5 Corners (Austria Lustenau – Sturm Graz) at 1.40, the quarter staked €5.56; result: won, +€2.22.
Fri 30 Oct 01:01 · Cup · ticket #1491
+2.22 €won
Kelly said 10.0% on Over 10.5 Corners (Austria Lustenau – Sturm Graz) at 2.22, the quarter staked €5.73; result: won, +€6.99.
Fri 30 Oct 01:01 · Cup · ticket #1488
+6.99 €won
Kelly said 6.3% on Under 11.5 Corners (Groningen – Emmen) at 1.53, the quarter staked €4.98; result: won, +€2.64.
Fri 30 Oct 00:32 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1502
+2.64 €won
Kelly said 9.6% on Under 10.5 Corners (Groningen – Emmen) at 1.87, the quarter staked €5.51; result: lost, −€5.51.
Fri 30 Oct 00:32 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1492
-5.51 €lost
Kelly said 4.8% on Fiorentina Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Fiorentina – Atalanta) at 1.95, the quarter staked €5.03; result: lost, −€5.03.
Fri 30 Oct 00:02 · Serie A · ticket #1501
-5.03 €lost
Kelly said 5.3% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Fiorentina – Atalanta) at 1.98, the quarter staked €5.19; result: lost, −€5.19.
Fri 30 Oct 00:02 · Serie A · ticket #1498
-5.19 €lost
Kelly said 14.1% on Newcastle Over 3.5 Corners (Everton – Newcastle) at 1.43, the quarter staked €5.35; result: won, +€2.30.
Fri 30 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1495
+2.30 €won
Kelly said 16.7% on Newcastle Over 4.5 Corners (Everton – Newcastle) at 1.90, the quarter staked €5.79; result: won, +€5.21.
Fri 30 Oct 00:02 · League Cup · ticket #1486
+5.21 €won
Kelly said 1.7% on Under 10.5 Corners (De Treffers – Heracles) at 2.02, the quarter staked €2.06; result: lost, −€2.06.
Thu 29 Oct 23:30 · KNVB Beker · ticket #1503
-2.06 €lost
Kelly said 11.1% on Cusco Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Club Deportivo Los Chankas – Cusco) at 2.15, the quarter staked €4.91; result: won, +€5.65.
Thu 29 Oct 22:30 · Primera División · ticket #1511
+5.65 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Lecce Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Frosinone – Lecce) at 1.60, the quarter staked €5.08; result: lost, −€5.08.
Thu 29 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1500
-5.08 €lost
Kelly said 7.5% on Frosinone Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Frosinone – Lecce) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.45; result: won, +€5.45.
Thu 29 Oct 21:30 · Serie A · ticket #1493
+5.45 €won
Kelly said 5.3% on Over 7.5 Corners (Atletico Tucuman – Platense) at 1.47, the quarter staked €3.31; result: won, +€1.56.
Thu 29 Oct 08:30 · Copa Argentina · ticket #1464
+1.56 €won
Kelly said 8.5% on Over 8.5 Corners (Atletico Tucuman – Platense) at 1.82, the quarter staked €4.37; result: won, +€3.58.
Thu 29 Oct 08:30 · Copa Argentina · ticket #1436
+3.58 €won
Kelly said 3.3% on Colorado Rapids Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (San Jose Earthquakes – Colorado Rapids) at 1.90, the quarter staked €2.81; result: lost, −€2.81.
Thu 29 Oct 07:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1461
-2.81 €lost
Kelly said 5.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union) at 1.75, the quarter staked €3.68; result: won, +€2.76.
Thu 29 Oct 05:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1453
+2.76 €won
Kelly said 8.4% on Philadelphia Union Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union) at 1.78, the quarter staked €4.19; result: won, +€3.27.
Thu 29 Oct 05:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1440
+3.27 €won
Kelly said 12.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (FC Dallas – Columbus Crew) at 1.72, the quarter staked €5.08; result: won, +€3.66.
Thu 29 Oct 05:30 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1421
+3.66 €won
Kelly said 3.0% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Bahia – Sao Paulo) at 1.42, the quarter staked €2.32; result: won, +€0.97.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Serie A · ticket #1472
+0.97 €won
Kelly said 5.7% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Minnesota United FC – Sporting Kansas City) at 1.52, the quarter staked €3.37; result: won, +€1.75.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1462
+1.75 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Austin Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Austin – Real Salt Lake) at 1.65, the quarter staked €3.61; result: won, +€2.35.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1455
+2.35 €won
Kelly said 9.4% on Orlando City SC Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Chicago Fire – Orlando City SC) at 1.72, the quarter staked €4.28; result: won, +€3.08.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1438
+3.08 €won
Kelly said 8.5% on Minnesota United FC Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Minnesota United FC – Sporting Kansas City) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.83; result: lost, −€4.83.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1426
-4.83 €lost
Kelly said 12.4% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Bahia – Sao Paulo) at 1.73, the quarter staked €5.02; result: lost, −€5.02.
Thu 29 Oct 05:00 · Serie A · ticket #1422
-5.02 €lost
Kelly said 0.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls) at 1.62, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Thu 29 Oct 04:31 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1476
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 1.7% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Inter Miami – FC Cincinnati) at 1.75, the quarter staked €1.33; result: won, +€1.00.
Thu 29 Oct 04:31 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1471
+1.00 €won
Kelly said 6.1% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Remo – Botafogo) at 1.32, the quarter staked €3.25; result: won, +€1.04.
Thu 29 Oct 04:31 · Serie A · ticket #1466
+1.04 €won
Kelly said 14.0% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Remo – Botafogo) at 1.60, the quarter staked €4.78; result: won, +€2.87.
Thu 29 Oct 04:31 · Serie A · ticket #1427
+2.87 €won
Kelly said 10.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Remo – Botafogo) at 2.07, the quarter staked €5.39; result: won, +€5.77.
Thu 29 Oct 04:31 · Serie A · ticket #1415
+5.77 €won
Kelly said 0.7% on New York Red Bulls Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (New England Revolution – New York Red Bulls) at 1.62, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Thu 29 Oct 04:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1475
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 5.1% on New York City FC Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (New York City FC – Atlanta United FC) at 2.00, the quarter staked €3.95; result: lost, −€3.95.
Thu 29 Oct 04:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1446
-3.95 €lost
Kelly said 9.6% on FC Cincinnati Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Inter Miami – FC Cincinnati) at 1.72, the quarter staked €4.32; result: won, +€3.11.
Thu 29 Oct 04:00 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1437
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.