Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 3 of 12
Kelly said 2.9% on Manchester United Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Chelsea – Manchester United) at 1.95, the quarter staked €1.94; result: lost, −€1.94.
Sat 31 Oct 17:01 · Premier League · ticket #1631
-1.94 €lost
Kelly said 15.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Levante – Atletico Madrid) at 1.97, the quarter staked €5.56; result: won, +€5.39.
Sat 31 Oct 17:01 · La Liga · ticket #1558
+5.39 €won
Kelly said 1.9% on Ludogorets Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Ludogorets) at 1.60, the quarter staked €1.11; result: won, +€0.67.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · First League · ticket #1648
+0.67 €won
Kelly said 3.1% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Norwich – Watford) at 1.83, the quarter staked €2.03; result: lost, −€2.03.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1634
-2.03 €lost
Kelly said 7.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Stoke City – Preston) at 1.39, the quarter staked €2.76; result: won, +€1.08.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1629
+1.08 €won
Kelly said 4.5% on Chelsea Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Chelsea – Manchester United) at 1.74, the quarter staked €2.98; result: won, +€2.21.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · Premier League · ticket #1621
+2.21 €won
Kelly said 6.2% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Stoke City – Preston) at 1.67, the quarter staked €3.30; result: won, +€2.21.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1611
+2.21 €won
Kelly said 10.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Stoke City – Preston) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.59; result: won, +€3.67.
Sat 31 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1578
+3.67 €won
Kelly said 1.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Lokomotiv Plovdiv – Ludogorets) at 1.70, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 31 Oct 16:01 · First League · ticket #1650
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 1.8% on Deportivo Pasto Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Bucaramanga – Deportivo Pasto) at 1.83, the quarter staked €1.87; result: won, +€1.55.
Sat 31 Oct 06:02 · Primera A · ticket #1549
+1.55 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Racing Club Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Racing Club – Aldosivi) at 1.77, the quarter staked €4.99; result: lost, −€4.99.
Sat 31 Oct 04:31 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1531
-4.99 €lost
Kelly said 7.0% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Racing Club – Aldosivi) at 2.10, the quarter staked €5.41; result: won, +€5.95.
Sat 31 Oct 04:31 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1523
+5.95 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Corinthians – Mirassol) at 1.85, the quarter staked €4.94; result: won, +€4.20.
Sat 31 Oct 04:01 · Serie A · ticket #1532
+4.20 €won
Kelly said 16.2% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Corinthians – Mirassol) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.75; result: won, +€3.85.
Sat 31 Oct 03:40 · Serie A · ticket #1517
+3.85 €won
Kelly said 10.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Gimnasia L.P.) at 1.65, the quarter staked €5.36; result: lost, −€5.36.
Sat 31 Oct 02:32 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1524
-5.36 €lost
Kelly said 2.5% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Coquimbo Unido – Union La Calera) at 1.38, the quarter staked €2.65; result: won, +€1.01.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Primera División · ticket #1550
+1.01 €won
Kelly said 2.7% on Under 7.5 Shots on Target (Huracan – Tigre) at 2.05, the quarter staked €2.89; result: won, +€3.03.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1546
+3.03 €won
Kelly said 11.1% on Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Gimnasia L.P.) at 1.37, the quarter staked €4.61; result: lost, −€4.61.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1539
-4.61 €lost
Kelly said 5.0% on Huracan Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Huracan – Tigre) at 2.02, the quarter staked €4.75; result: lost, −€4.75.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1536
-4.75 €lost
Kelly said 7.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Coquimbo Unido – Union La Calera) at 1.70, the quarter staked €4.79; result: won, +€3.35.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Primera División · ticket #1535
+3.35 €won
Kelly said 9.6% on Colo Colo Over 1.5 Yellow Cards (Colo Colo – Universidad de Concepcion) at 1.71, the quarter staked €5.25; result: won, +€3.73.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Primera División · ticket #1526
+3.73 €won
Kelly said 10.5% on Universidad de Concepcion Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Colo Colo – Universidad de Concepcion) at 1.82, the quarter staked €5.46; result: won, +€4.48.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Primera División · ticket #1522
+4.48 €won
Kelly said 8.3% on Tigre Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Huracan – Tigre) at 2.15, the quarter staked €5.63; result: won, +€6.47.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1519
+6.47 €won
Kelly said 16.2% on Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto – Gimnasia L.P.) at 1.93, the quarter staked €5.98; result: lost, −€5.98.
Sat 31 Oct 02:01 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1513
-5.98 €lost
Kelly said 8.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Lille – Lens) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.84; result: won, +€3.15.
Sat 31 Oct 00:33 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1534
+3.15 €won
Kelly said 9.1% on Lille Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Lille – Lens) at 1.75, the quarter staked €5.20; result: won, +€3.90.
Sat 31 Oct 00:33 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1527
+3.90 €won
Kelly said 10.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Lille – Lens) at 2.15, the quarter staked €5.80; result: won, +€6.67.
Sat 31 Oct 00:33 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1516
+6.67 €won
Kelly said 2.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Zulte Waregem – Club Brugge KV) at 1.52, the quarter staked €3.03; result: lost, −€3.03.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1548
-3.03 €lost
Kelly said 4.3% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Sheffield Utd – Wrexham) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.47; result: won, +€3.26.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · Championship · ticket #1542
+3.26 €won
Kelly said 6.3% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (SV Elversberg – FSV Mainz 05) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.65; result: lost, −€4.65.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · Bundesliga · ticket #1538
-4.65 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on Sheffield Utd Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Sheffield Utd – Wrexham) at 1.90, the quarter staked €5.04; result: lost, −€5.04.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · Championship · ticket #1530
-5.04 €lost
Kelly said 6.2% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Zulte Waregem – Club Brugge KV) at 2.05, the quarter staked €5.09; result: lost, −€5.09.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1529
-5.09 €lost
Kelly said 14.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Villarreal – Espanyol) at 2.27, the quarter staked €6.04; result: won, +€7.67.
Sat 31 Oct 00:02 · La Liga · ticket #1512
+7.67 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on SV Elversberg Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (SV Elversberg – FSV Mainz 05) at 1.49, the quarter staked €4.34; result: won, +€2.13.
Fri 30 Oct 23:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #1545
+2.13 €won
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (SV Elversberg – FSV Mainz 05) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.86; result: won, +€5.86.
Fri 30 Oct 23:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #1515
+5.86 €won
Kelly said 4.2% on Csikszereda Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Rapid – Csikszereda) at 2.05, the quarter staked €4.70; result: lost, −€4.70.
Fri 30 Oct 22:30 · Liga I · ticket #1537
-4.70 €lost
Kelly said 4.4% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Le Havre – Paris Saint Germain) at 1.65, the quarter staked €4.42; result: won, +€2.87.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1543
+2.87 €won
Kelly said 6.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Lyngby – Randers FC) at 1.52, the quarter staked €4.51; result: won, +€2.35.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Superliga · ticket #1541
+2.35 €won
Kelly said 12.0% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Nice – Rennes) at 1.57, the quarter staked €5.30; result: lost, −€5.30.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1525
-5.30 €lost
Kelly said 8.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Lyngby – Randers FC) at 2.05, the quarter staked €5.57; result: lost, −€5.57.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Superliga · ticket #1520
-5.57 €lost
Kelly said 10.9% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Nice – Rennes) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.69; result: lost, −€5.69.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1518
-5.69 €lost
Kelly said 11.3% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Nice – Rennes) at 2.10, the quarter staked €5.92; result: lost, −€5.92.
Fri 30 Oct 22:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #1514
-5.92 €lost
Kelly said 2.8% on CSKA 1948 Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (CSKA 1948 – Spartak Varna) at 1.82, the quarter staked €3.02; result: won, +€2.48.
Fri 30 Oct 19:30 · First League · ticket #1547
+2.48 €won
Kelly said 7.6% on Spartak Varna Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (CSKA 1948 – Spartak Varna) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.89; result: won, +€3.57.
Fri 30 Oct 19:30 · First League · ticket #1533
+3.57 €won
Kelly said 9.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (CSKA 1948 – Spartak Varna) at 1.67, the quarter staked €5.14; result: won, +€3.44.
Fri 30 Oct 19:30 · First League · ticket #1528
+3.44 €won
Kelly said 10.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Bahia – Sao Paulo) at 1.83, the quarter staked €4.97; result: won, +€4.13.
Fri 30 Oct 19:00 · Serie A · ticket #1423
+4.13 €won
Kelly said 10.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (St. Louis City – Portland Timbers) at 1.72, the quarter staked €4.45; result: lost, −€4.45.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Major League Soccer · ticket #1434
-4.45 €lost
Kelly said 9.0% on SC Paderborn 07 Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (SC Paderborn 07 – VfB Stuttgart) at 2.20, the quarter staked €5.28; result: lost, −€5.28.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · DFB Pokal · ticket #1417
-5.28 €lost
Kelly said 12.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Parma – Udinese) at 2.06, the quarter staked €5.61; result: won, +€5.95.
Fri 30 Oct 18:54 · Serie A · ticket #1410
+5.95 €won
Kelly said 0.0% on Cherno More Varna Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Cherno More Varna – Septemvri Sofia) at 1.57, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.