Transparency
Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries .The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section Settled Won Profit (units)
VALUE 29 12 -4.7 MODEL 102 62 +3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
€607.41+107.41 €
Start €500.00
Units +30.9 1 u = €3.47
Record 342–218 86 open
Yield +5.5%
Max drawdown 7.8%
Streaks 13W · 10L best / worst run
Tracked bettor €449.51 from €500.00 · 671–447 · yield +4.1%
Real ledger (EUR) −€6.58 €23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 2 of 12
Kelly said 0.7% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone) at 1.31, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Premiership · ticket #1658
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 1.2% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Bolton – Bristol City) at 1.83, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1649
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 2.3% on KV Mechelen Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (KV Mechelen – Genk) at 1.53, the quarter staked €1.38; result: won, +€0.73.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #1647
+0.73 €won
Kelly said 1.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Southampton – QPR) at 1.82, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.82.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1644
+0.82 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Swansea – Blackburn) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.01; result: won, +€1.87.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1620
+1.87 €won
Kelly said 6.0% on Burnley Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Burnley – Portsmouth) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.04; result: won, +€1.88.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1619
+1.88 €won
Kelly said 4.6% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Middlesbrough – Charlton) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.17; result: won, +€2.63.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1615
+2.63 €won
Kelly said 7.8% on Middlesbrough Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Middlesbrough – Charlton) at 1.52, the quarter staked €3.23; result: lost, −€3.23.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1613
-3.23 €lost
Kelly said 6.8% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.26; result: lost, −€3.26.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Premiership · ticket #1612
-3.26 €lost
Kelly said 8.0% on ST Johnstone Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Kilmarnock – ST Johnstone) at 1.52, the quarter staked €3.33; result: lost, −€3.33.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Premiership · ticket #1610
-3.33 €lost
Kelly said 4.3% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Middlesbrough – Charlton) at 2.00, the quarter staked €3.36; result: won, +€3.36.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1609
+3.36 €won
Kelly said 14.3% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Burnley – Portsmouth) at 1.37, the quarter staked €3.72; result: won, +€1.38.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1599
+1.38 €won
Kelly said 5.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Bolton – Bristol City) at 2.12, the quarter staked €4.20; result: won, +€4.70.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1587
+4.70 €won
Kelly said 7.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Burnley – Portsmouth) at 1.93, the quarter staked €4.32; result: won, +€4.02.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1584
+4.02 €won
Kelly said 11.2% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Swansea – Blackburn) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.55; result: lost, −€4.55.
Sat 31 Oct 23:00 · Championship · ticket #1579
-4.55 €lost
Kelly said 8.5% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Eibar – Almeria) at 1.44, the quarter staked €3.07; result: won, +€1.35.
Sat 31 Oct 20:00 · Segunda División · ticket #1618
+1.35 €won
Kelly said 12.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Eibar – Almeria) at 1.78, the quarter staked €4.88; result: lost, −€4.88.
Sat 31 Oct 20:00 · Segunda División · ticket #1572
-4.88 €lost
Kelly said 6.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Wolves – Cardiff) at 1.83, the quarter staked €3.87; result: lost, −€3.87.
Sat 31 Oct 19:30 · Championship · ticket #1595
-3.87 €lost
Kelly said 0.1% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Millwall – Derby) at 1.80, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1660
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 6.5% on Manchester City Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 1.29, the quarter staked €2.54; result: won, +€0.74.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1638
+0.74 €won
Kelly said 5.8% on Coventry Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Coventry – Sunderland) at 1.37, the quarter staked €2.57; result: won, +€0.95.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1637
+0.95 €won
Kelly said 4.7% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Brentford – Nottingham Forest) at 1.62, the quarter staked €2.82; result: won, +€1.75.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1627
+1.75 €won
Kelly said 12.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 1.57, the quarter staked €4.24; result: won, +€2.42.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1586
+2.42 €won
Kelly said 8.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Brentford – Nottingham Forest) at 2.00, the quarter staked €4.64; result: won, +€4.64.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1577
+4.64 €won
Kelly said 9.1% on Millwall Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Millwall – Derby) at 2.10, the quarter staked €5.03; result: lost, −€5.03.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Championship · ticket #1569
-5.03 €lost
Kelly said 11.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Coventry – Sunderland) at 2.00, the quarter staked €5.18; result: won, +€5.18.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1566
+5.18 €won
Kelly said 12.2% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Manchester City – Brighton) at 2.12, the quarter staked €5.50; result: won, +€6.16.
Sat 31 Oct 19:01 · Premier League · ticket #1560
+6.16 €won
Kelly said 0.2% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg) at 1.31, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.31.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1661
+0.31 €won
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Borussia Mönchengladbach – SC Paderborn 07) at 1.34, the quarter staked €2.47; result: won, +€0.84.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1642
+0.84 €won
Kelly said 4.6% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Werder Bremen – 1899 Hoffenheim) at 1.60, the quarter staked €2.73; result: won, +€1.64.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1630
+1.64 €won
Kelly said 7.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (FC Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig) at 1.50, the quarter staked €3.20; result: won, +€1.60.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1614
+1.60 €won
Kelly said 7.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (FC Augsburg – SC Freiburg) at 1.60, the quarter staked €3.43; result: won, +€2.06.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1607
+2.06 €won
Kelly said 8.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Krasava Ypsonas – AEK Larnaca) at 1.65, the quarter staked €3.79; result: lost, −€3.79.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · 1. Division · ticket #1597
-3.79 €lost
Kelly said 7.5% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Borussia Mönchengladbach – SC Paderborn 07) at 1.83, the quarter staked €4.03; result: lost, −€4.03.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1591
-4.03 €lost
Kelly said 9.3% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Borussia Mönchengladbach – SC Paderborn 07) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.07; result: lost, −€4.07.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1590
-4.07 €lost
Kelly said 15.5% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (FC Schalke 04 – RB Leipzig) at 2.13, the quarter staked €5.67; result: won, +€6.41.
Sat 31 Oct 18:32 · Bundesliga · ticket #1555
+6.41 €won
Kelly said 2.9% on Over 4.5 Yellow Cards (Pardubice – Slovan Liberec) at 2.02, the quarter staked €2.04; result: lost, −€2.04.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Czech Liga · ticket #1626
-2.04 €lost
Kelly said 12.1% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (Corvinul Hunedoara – Arges Pitesti) at 1.38, the quarter staked €3.50; result: won, +€1.33.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1605
+1.33 €won
Kelly said 13.2% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Slovácko – Teplice) at 1.42, the quarter staked €3.83; result: won, +€1.61.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Czech Liga · ticket #1596
+1.61 €won
Kelly said 5.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Bologna – Monza) at 2.02, the quarter staked €3.99; result: lost, −€3.99.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1592
-3.99 €lost
Kelly said 17.4% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Sudtirol – Cesena) at 1.40, the quarter staked €4.28; result: won, +€1.71.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Serie B · ticket #1585
+1.71 €won
Kelly said 8.2% on Bologna Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Bologna – Monza) at 1.90, the quarter staked €4.37; result: lost, −€4.37.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1583
-4.37 €lost
Kelly said 12.7% on Slovácko Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Slovácko – Teplice) at 1.60, the quarter staked €4.41; result: won, +€2.65.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Czech Liga · ticket #1582
+2.65 €won
Kelly said 9.2% on Arges Pitesti Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Corvinul Hunedoara – Arges Pitesti) at 2.07, the quarter staked €4.98; result: won, +€5.33.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1570
+5.33 €won
Kelly said 15.0% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Corvinul Hunedoara – Arges Pitesti) at 1.70, the quarter staked €5.08; result: won, +€3.56.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1568
+3.56 €won
Kelly said 20.2% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Sudtirol – Cesena) at 1.78, the quarter staked €5.62; result: lost, −€5.62.
Sat 31 Oct 18:01 · Serie B · ticket #1556
-5.62 €lost
Kelly said 2.4% on Over 3.5 Yellow Cards (Real Sociedad II – Girona) at 1.34, the quarter staked €1.40; result: won, +€0.48.
Sat 31 Oct 17:31 · Segunda División · ticket #1653
+0.48 €won
Kelly said 8.4% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Levante – Atletico Madrid) at 1.62, the quarter staked €3.61; result: won, +€2.24.
Sat 31 Oct 17:31 · La Liga · ticket #1602
+2.24 €won
Kelly said 14.0% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Levante – Atletico Madrid) at 1.38, the quarter staked €3.76; result: won, +€1.43.
Sat 31 Oct 17:31 · La Liga · ticket #1598
+1.43 €won
Kelly said 2.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Chelsea – Manchester United) at 1.67, the quarter staked €1.28; result: lost, −€1.28.
Sat 31 Oct 17:01 · Premier League · ticket #1643
-1.28 €lost
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band Picks Predicted Hit Gap
50–60% 549 55.2% 51.5% -3.6 pp 60–70% 554 64.4% 63.0% -1.4 pp 70–80% 279 74.4% 73.5% -0.9 pp 80–90% 108 83.6% 78.7% -4.9 pp 90–100% 13 92.4% 92.3% -0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market Picks With a close CLV Beat the close Settled Won
corners 223 221 +0.6% 32% 209 131 fouls 8 7 −0.8% 0% 8 4 goals 95 95 −0.1% 36% 87 50 offsides 241 237 +4.6% 57% 229 150 shots 5 5 +1.2% 60% 5 4 shots_on_target 255 244 +2.1% 43% 245 134 yellow_cards 753 688 +2.7% 40% 655 427
By month
Month Tickets Won Hit rate Yield P/L CLV
2026-11 45 26 58% +0.2% €0.10 +3.5% 2026-10 1092 645 60% +4.3% €57.30 +2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers .
BetAgent is a statistical prediction model that lives day by day. All data is recorded as it happens and the history has never been modified since the system was born. Purely informational: no responsibility for your losses or for how you use the information; we do not condone or encourage betting; no guarantee of profit; 18+ only; betting may be illegal where you live, check your local law; not financial advice.