Transparency
Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries .The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section Settled Won Profit (units)
VALUE 29 12 -4.7 MODEL 102 62 +3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
€607.41+107.41 €
Start €500.00
Units +30.9 1 u = €3.47
Record 342–218 86 open
Yield +5.5%
Max drawdown 7.8%
Streaks 13W · 10L best / worst run
Tracked bettor €449.51 from €500.00 · 671–447 · yield +4.1%
Real ledger (EUR) −€6.58 €23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 11 of 12
Kelly said 17.9% on FSV Mainz 05 Under 2.5 Offsides (FSV Mainz 05 – Werder Bremen) at 1.32, the quarter staked €2.54; result: won, +€0.81.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1101
+0.81 €won
Kelly said 21.4% on RB Leipzig Under 2.5 Offsides (RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg) at 1.32, the quarter staked €2.86; result: won, +€0.92.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1089
+0.92 €won
Kelly said 12.8% on Union Berlin Over 1.5 Offsides (FC Augsburg – Union Berlin) at 1.97, the quarter staked €4.11; result: won, +€3.99.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1049
+3.99 €won
Kelly said 12.6% on RB Leipzig Under 1.5 Offsides (RB Leipzig – SV Elversberg) at 2.02, the quarter staked €4.15; result: won, +€4.23.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1047
+4.23 €won
Kelly said 20.8% on FC Schalke 04 Under 2.5 Offsides (1. FC Köln – FC Schalke 04) at 1.62, the quarter staked €4.19; result: won, +€2.60.
Sat 24 Oct 18:31 · Bundesliga · ticket #1046
+2.60 €won
Kelly said 2.2% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Gaziantep FK – Erzurumspor FK) at 1.55, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.55.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Süper Lig · ticket #1160
+0.55 €won
Kelly said 2.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Sudtirol – Sampdoria) at 1.73, the quarter staked €1.10; result: won, +€0.80.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie B · ticket #1154
+0.80 €won
Kelly said 5.4% on Over 2.5 Offsides (Cagliari – Bologna) at 1.40, the quarter staked €1.52; result: won, +€0.61.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1153
+0.61 €won
Kelly said 9.6% on Como Over 0.5 Offsides (Como – Sassuolo) at 1.46, the quarter staked €2.01; result: won, +€0.92.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1124
+0.92 €won
Kelly said 6.5% on Cagliari Over 1.5 Offsides (Cagliari – Bologna) at 1.70, the quarter staked €2.09; result: won, +€1.46.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1120
+1.46 €won
Kelly said 4.9% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Gaziantep FK – Erzurumspor FK) at 2.02, the quarter staked €2.25; result: won, +€2.29.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Süper Lig · ticket #1113
+2.29 €won
Kelly said 4.8% on Sassuolo Under 2.5 Offsides (Como – Sassuolo) at 2.07, the quarter staked €2.34; result: lost, −€2.34.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1109
-2.34 €lost
Kelly said 5.2% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Csikszereda – FC Voluntari) at 2.10, the quarter staked €2.56; result: won, +€2.82.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Liga I · ticket #1100
+2.82 €won
Kelly said 6.8% on Over 3.5 Offsides (Cagliari – Bologna) at 2.00, the quarter staked €2.83; result: lost, −€2.83.
Sat 24 Oct 18:01 · Serie A · ticket #1090
-2.83 €lost
Kelly said 3.5% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Cordoba – Eibar) at 2.05, the quarter staked €1.59; result: lost, −€1.59.
Sat 24 Oct 17:31 · Segunda División · ticket #1135
-1.59 €lost
Kelly said 3.9% on Derby Over 2.5 Yellow Cards (Sheffield Utd – Derby) at 2.05, the quarter staked €1.94; result: won, +€2.04.
Sat 24 Oct 17:01 · Championship · ticket #1126
+2.04 €won
Kelly said 0.1% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Charlton – Norwich) at 1.52, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1169
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 1.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Sheffield Utd – Derby) at 1.58, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1163
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 3.7% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Charlton – Norwich) at 2.05, the quarter staked €1.70; result: lost, −€1.70.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1132
-1.70 €lost
Kelly said 12.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Portsmouth – Millwall) at 1.38, the quarter staked €2.20; result: won, +€0.84.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1115
+0.84 €won
Kelly said 10.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Aston Villa – Manchester City) at 1.65, the quarter staked €2.89; result: lost, −€2.89.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Premier League · ticket #1088
-2.89 €lost
Kelly said 10.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Portsmouth – Millwall) at 1.67, the quarter staked €2.92; result: won, +€1.96.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1087
+1.96 €won
Kelly said 11.2% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Portsmouth – Millwall) at 1.65, the quarter staked €3.07; result: won, +€2.00.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1082
+2.00 €won
Kelly said 16.5% on Sheffield Utd Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Sheffield Utd – Derby) at 1.55, the quarter staked €3.46; result: won, +€1.90.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Championship · ticket #1069
+1.90 €won
Kelly said 37.5% on Aston Villa Over 0.5 Offsides (Aston Villa – Manchester City) at 1.29, the quarter staked €3.87; result: won, +€1.12.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Premier League · ticket #1057
+1.12 €won
Kelly said 16.6% on Manchester City Under 2.5 Offsides (Aston Villa – Manchester City) at 1.95, the quarter staked €4.36; result: won, +€4.14.
Sat 24 Oct 16:31 · Premier League · ticket #1039
+4.14 €won
Kelly said 4.1% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Eyüpspor – Kasımpaşa) at 1.47, the quarter staked €1.48; result: won, +€0.70.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Süper Lig · ticket #1156
+0.70 €won
Kelly said 6.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Eyüpspor – Kasımpaşa) at 1.87, the quarter staked €2.48; result: won, +€2.16.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Süper Lig · ticket #1103
+2.16 €won
Kelly said 1.7% on Remo Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Cruzeiro – Remo) at 1.92, the quarter staked €1.57; result: lost, −€1.57.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #1002
-1.57 €lost
Kelly said 7.7% on Over 8.5 Shots on Target (Cruzeiro – Remo) at 1.47, the quarter staked €3.97; result: lost, −€3.97.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #994
-3.97 €lost
Kelly said 6.6% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Sport Recife – Criciuma) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.09; result: won, +€2.74.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Serie B · ticket #991
+2.74 €won
Kelly said 8.1% on Over 9.5 Shots on Target (Cruzeiro – Remo) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.34; result: lost, −€4.34.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Serie A · ticket #985
-4.34 €lost
Kelly said 19.8% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Tigre – Atletico Tucuman) at 1.40, the quarter staked €4.57; result: won, +€1.83.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #979
+1.83 €won
Kelly said 14.0% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Sport Recife – Criciuma) at 1.73, the quarter staked €4.75; result: lost, −€4.75.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Serie B · ticket #975
-4.75 €lost
Kelly said 16.3% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Tigre – Atletico Tucuman) at 1.70, the quarter staked €4.85; result: won, +€3.39.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #973
+3.39 €won
Kelly said 11.6% on Under 7.5 Shots on Target (Tigre – Atletico Tucuman) at 2.20, the quarter staked €4.90; result: lost, −€4.90.
Sat 24 Oct 16:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #971
-4.90 €lost
Kelly said 9.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Gimnasia M. – Platense) at 1.50, the quarter staked €4.13; result: lost, −€4.13.
Sat 24 Oct 02:30 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #990
-4.13 €lost
Kelly said 7.8% on Under 5.5 Yellow Cards (Gimnasia M. – Platense) at 1.67, the quarter staked €4.21; result: won, +€2.82.
Sat 24 Oct 02:30 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #988
+2.82 €won
Kelly said 8.7% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Gimnasia M. – Platense) at 1.88, the quarter staked €4.48; result: lost, −€4.48.
Sat 24 Oct 02:30 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #982
-4.48 €lost
Kelly said 3.0% on Gimnasia L.P. Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin) at 1.80, the quarter staked €2.80; result: won, +€2.24.
Sat 24 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #1000
+2.24 €won
Kelly said 6.7% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Gimnasia L.P. – Sarmiento Junin) at 1.80, the quarter staked €4.26; result: won, +€3.41.
Sat 24 Oct 02:00 · Liga Profesional Argentina · ticket #987
+3.41 €won
Kelly said 0.6% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Vitória SC – Maritimo) at 1.47, the quarter staked €1.00; result: lost, −€1.00.
Sat 24 Oct 01:00 · Primeira Liga · ticket #1003
-1.00 €lost
Kelly said 8.8% on Malaga Under 2.5 Offsides (Alaves – Malaga) at 1.24, the quarter staked €3.73; result: won, +€0.90.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · La Liga · ticket #1001
+0.90 €won
Kelly said 6.5% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Torino – Monza) at 1.40, the quarter staked €3.82; result: won, +€1.53.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Serie A · ticket #998
+1.53 €won
Kelly said 2.9% on Under 3.5 Yellow Cards (Stade Brestois 29 – Nice) at 1.92, the quarter staked €2.75; result: lost, −€2.75.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #997
-2.75 €lost
Kelly said 6.1% on Bolton Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Bolton – Middlesbrough) at 1.56, the quarter staked €3.93; result: won, +€2.20.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Championship · ticket #995
+2.20 €won
Kelly said 7.1% on Nice Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Stade Brestois 29 – Nice) at 1.52, the quarter staked €4.01; result: lost, −€4.01.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #993
-4.01 €lost
Kelly said 5.8% on Under 8.5 Shots on Target (Stade Brestois 29 – Nice) at 2.10, the quarter staked €4.30; result: lost, −€4.30.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Ligue 1 · ticket #986
-4.30 €lost
Kelly said 9.0% on Torino Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Torino – Monza) at 1.90, the quarter staked €4.61; result: won, +€4.15.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Serie A · ticket #978
+4.15 €won
Kelly said 22.2% on Under 4.5 Offsides (Ipswich – Nottingham Forest) at 1.40, the quarter staked €4.66; result: won, +€1.86.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Premier League · ticket #977
+1.86 €won
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band Picks Predicted Hit Gap
50–60% 549 55.2% 51.5% -3.6 pp 60–70% 554 64.4% 63.0% -1.4 pp 70–80% 279 74.4% 73.5% -0.9 pp 80–90% 108 83.6% 78.7% -4.9 pp 90–100% 13 92.4% 92.3% -0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market Picks With a close CLV Beat the close Settled Won
corners 223 221 +0.6% 32% 209 131 fouls 8 7 −0.8% 0% 8 4 goals 95 95 −0.1% 36% 87 50 offsides 241 237 +4.6% 57% 229 150 shots 5 5 +1.2% 60% 5 4 shots_on_target 255 244 +2.1% 43% 245 134 yellow_cards 753 688 +2.7% 40% 655 427
By month
Month Tickets Won Hit rate Yield P/L CLV
2026-11 45 26 58% +0.2% €0.10 +3.5% 2026-10 1092 645 60% +4.3% €57.30 +2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers .
BetAgent is a statistical prediction model that lives day by day. All data is recorded as it happens and the history has never been modified since the system was born. Purely informational: no responsibility for your losses or for how you use the information; we do not condone or encourage betting; no guarantee of profit; 18+ only; betting may be illegal where you live, check your local law; not financial advice.