Every number on this page is read from the database when you open it and moves with the settlement sweeps. Nothing is typed in by hand.
Corrections
30 Oct 2026 — 30 Oct — card bets re-settled under the bookmaker's Total cartonașe rule (reds count, non-player bookings excluded); 26 tickets changed, net −€7.51. Before/after list and journal entries.
The tracked bankroll €500 since 13 Oct 2026
Bankroll
€557.40
profit €57.40
Record
671–447
1118 settled, 86 open
Yield
+4.1%
€1,385.88 staked
Closing-line value
+2.3%
1244 legs · beat the close 42%
Equity after every stake and settlement: low €458.77, high €599.37.
The real-money list since 22 Oct 2026
Tickets listed
148
131 settled
Record
74–56
hit rate 57%
Yield
−1.1%
-1.37 units at 1 per ticket
Closing-line value
+1.9%
129 tickets · beat the close 33%
Section
Settled
Won
Profit (units)
VALUE
29
12
-4.7
MODEL
102
62
+3.4
Kelly shadow ledger paper, €500 per column, every single the tracked bettor placed
Three paper bankrolls take every single the tracked bettor places: the bettor's flat stake, full Kelly from the model's probability and the price taken, and quarter Kelly capped at 1% of the bankroll. The card follows the quarter column; nothing here is money.
Kelly bankroll
Quarter Kelly (cap 1 %) · paper, from €500.00 · one row per single the tracked bettor placed
Real ledger (EUR)−€6.58€23.00 staked · 7–7 · yield −28.6%
Kelly reviews 562 settled singles · page 12 of 12
Kelly said 11.1% on Under 9.5 Shots on Target (Bolton – Middlesbrough) at 1.90, the quarter staked €4.71; result: lost, −€4.71.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Championship · ticket #976
-4.71 €lost
Kelly said 16.5% on Monza Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (Torino – Monza) at 2.25, the quarter staked €5.00; result: won, +€6.25.
Sat 24 Oct 00:01 · Serie A · ticket #965
+6.25 €won
Kelly said 18.5% on VfB Stuttgart Under 2.5 Offsides (VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach) at 1.39, the quarter staked €4.43; result: won, +€1.73.
Fri 23 Oct 23:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #983
+1.73 €won
Kelly said 16.8% on Under 3.5 Offsides (VfB Stuttgart – Borussia Mönchengladbach) at 1.95, the quarter staked €4.95; result: lost, −€4.95.
Fri 23 Oct 23:30 · Bundesliga · ticket #969
-4.95 €lost
Kelly said 5.8% on Kortrijk Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (Kortrijk – KV Mechelen) at 1.53, the quarter staked €3.89; result: void, stake back.
Fri 23 Oct 23:30 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #996
+0.00 €void
Kelly said 8.7% on Under 4.5 Yellow Cards (Kortrijk – KV Mechelen) at 1.75, the quarter staked €4.39; result: void, stake back.
Fri 23 Oct 23:30 · Jupiler Pro League · ticket #984
+0.00 €void
Kelly said 0.2% on GO Ahead Eagles Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (GO Ahead Eagles – Telstar) at 1.56, the quarter staked €1.00; result: won, +€0.56.
Fri 23 Oct 23:00 · Eredivisie · ticket #1004
+0.56 €won
Kelly said 3.2% on Telstar Under 1.5 Yellow Cards (GO Ahead Eagles – Telstar) at 1.77, the quarter staked €3.05; result: won, +€2.35.
Fri 23 Oct 23:00 · Eredivisie · ticket #999
+2.35 €won
Kelly said 4.7% on Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (GO Ahead Eagles – Telstar) at 2.07, the quarter staked €4.17; result: won, +€4.46.
Fri 23 Oct 23:00 · Eredivisie · ticket #989
+4.46 €won
Kelly said 9.7% on FC Botosani Over 0.5 Offsides (FC Botosani – Petrolul Ploiesti) at 1.40, the quarter staked €4.05; result: won, +€1.62.
Fri 23 Oct 20:30 · Liga I · ticket #992
+1.62 €won
Kelly said 15.6% on Under 6.5 Yellow Cards (FC Botosani – Petrolul Ploiesti) at 1.50, the quarter staked €4.52; result: lost, −€4.52.
Fri 23 Oct 20:30 · Liga I · ticket #980
-4.52 €lost
Kelly said 13.3% on FC Botosani Under 2.5 Yellow Cards (FC Botosani – Petrolul Ploiesti) at 1.85, the quarter staked €4.80; result: lost, −€4.80.
Free pick record one ticket a day, the median of the list, since 2026-10-22
Every day at 12:45 Bucharest the real list is ranked by win probability and the median ticket (the middle rank; with an even count the lower-ranked of the two) is the day's free pick, shown live to logged-in Free accounts. Here it appears the next day with its result. Same settlement as every other ticket, 1 unit each.
Days
11
10 settled, 1 open
Record
5–5
0 void
Yield
−12.5%
-1.2 units
No list yesterday, so no free pick to show.
Today's free pick is live in the Free panel from 12:45; this page always shows yesterday's.
Calibration what we said vs what happened
Settled picks grouped by the model's final probability. "Predicted" is the mean probability we gave; "Hit" is how often it happened. A well-calibrated model has the two close in every band; the gap is in probability points.
Band
Picks
Predicted
Hit
Gap
50–60%
549
55.2%
51.5%
-3.6 pp
60–70%
554
64.4%
63.0%
-1.4 pp
70–80%
279
74.4%
73.5%
-0.9 pp
80–90%
108
83.6%
78.7%
-4.9 pp
90–100%
13
92.4%
92.3%
-0.1 pp
Closing-line value by market tracked picks since 15 Oct 2026
Market
Picks
With a close
CLV
Beat the close
Settled
Won
corners
223
221
+0.6%
32%
209
131
fouls
8
7
−0.8%
0%
8
4
goals
95
95
−0.1%
36%
87
50
offsides
241
237
+4.6%
57%
229
150
shots
5
5
+1.2%
60%
5
4
shots_on_target
255
244
+2.1%
43%
245
134
yellow_cards
753
688
+2.7%
40%
655
427
By month
Month
Tickets
Won
Hit rate
Yield
P/L
CLV
2026-11
45
26
58%
+0.2%
€0.10
+3.5%
2026-10
1092
645
60%
+4.3%
€57.30
+2.3%
Closing-line value: the price we recorded divided by the price at kick-off, minus one; positive means the market moved our way after we recorded. The JSON behind this page: /api/public/numbers.